1021: Week 3 Sleepers

JJ Zachariason (0:11)

What's up, everyone? It's JJ Zachariason. In this episode 1021 of The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast, sponsored by DraftKings, thanks for tuning in. There's no better way to get closer to the action than with DraftKings Daily Fantasy, the ultimate destination for football fans. New customers can play free for their share of millions and prizes with their first deposit of $5 or more. Download the DraftKings Daily Fantasy app and enter promo code LATEROUND to play free for your share of millions. The crown is yours. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. In New York, call 8778-HOPE-NY. In Connecticut, call 888-789-7777. 18 plus in most states. Eligibility restrictions apply. Ends December 31st. See terms at draftkings.com/promotions.

We had our typical hits and misses on last week's sleeper show. It was one of the worst quarterback streaming weeks that I can remember. JJ McCarthy, Michael Pennex, and Geno Smith were all horrible. And that's on me. They were terrible picks. I did talk up Jordan Love and Trevor Lawrence. They were good, but I should be well over 50% with quarterback streamers. Elsewhere, though, things were actually decent. There were a lot of 8 to 10-point performances like from Hollywood Brown, Harold Fannin, Chigga Conquo had 7.5 PPR points, K. Sean Booty, Dylan Sampson. But there were some really good hits in there. Elec Iyamander scored about 16 PPR points. We saw the same from Cooper Cup. Juwan Johnson got it done. And so did my guy, Baishal Tooten. And the defensive streamers were really good last week, too. Specifically, the Seattle Seahawks. Quarterback's one of the easiest positions to get right. So, I do feel good about having a better Week 3 than Week 2 Let's dig in.

We'll kick things out by looking at players rostered in 50 to 80% of Yahoo! Leagues. And we'll go with a quarterback that I'm higher than consensus with this week, and that's Caleb Williams. The Cowboys were fine in Week 1 against the Eagles passing attack. In my opinion, the Eagles just didn't adjust well. But we saw Dallas get absolutely lit up last week against Russell Wilson and the Giants. It's early in the season, but they now rank second worst in adjusted passing yards allowed. And they're now the second best matchup on paper in adjusted fantasy points allowed. The Bears-Cowboys game has one of the highest totals in this week's slate. Chicago has a 26-point implied total. The Bears defense has been really bad, and they recently lost Jalen Johnson in the secondary. We're likely looking at a back-and-forth contest, and that's huge for Caleb Williams because he's giving us four scrambles per game and some production on the ground. It's a great game to lean into this week. CJ. Stroud hasn't really gotten it done so far this year. He scored 8.7 in 15 standard points. But something that's kind of interesting, given this crappy offensive line that he's playing behind, he's running a little bit more. Stroud is averaging almost 30 rushing yards per game so far this year. His scramble rate is 11%.

That's the same as Josh Allen and Jaden Daniels. But Houston gets Jacksonville this week. It's an above average matchup for Stroud. And so far this year, Jacksonville hasn't been that incredible at pressuring the quarterback according to PFF data. So Stroud is not a terrible option. And you can stick with that same offense and go to Nick Chubb. One thing we need to point out with Chubb is that even though he had a big reception against the Buccaneers on Monday night, he's still not seeing a ton of receiving usage. He saw 9% target share in week two, which is fine, but his route share was only 30%. The good news is that this game against Jacksonville, it's not a lock for Houston to see a negative game script. And Chubb handled 80% of Houston's running back rushes in week two. Against a pretty average opponent, I think he could come through with RB3 numbers. Ramadre Stevenson needs to be on our radars after Trevion Henderson's poor showing in week two as well. I talked about that in the 15 Transaction Show. But Stevenson looked good, and the peripherals were strong. He had a 58% running back rush share and a 22% target share. New England gets Pittsburgh this week. The Steelers defense has been kind of brutal to start the year. And they currently rank second worst in adjusted rushing yards allowed to running backs this year. They've also given up the third most adjusted points to the position. We could easily see New England move back to Trevion Henderson more this week. I would imagine they do that versus what they did in week two. So there is some risk with Stevenson. But the matchup is absolutely there. And then you guys know I'm going to talk about Baishal Tooten. It's early, but Houston, his opponent this week, they ranked sixth in adjusted points allowed to running backs. Tooten himself saw a third of Jacksonville's running back rushes in week two. He ended up scoring a touchdown on one of his two targets. Now let's just be objective. His usage right now is not that great. But the hope is that it just keeps getting better and better as the season goes on. He's been really efficient so far and hopefully the Jags reward him. Now at wide receiver, Kenan Allen has been balling out. He's seen target shares of 29% and 26% over his first two games. He's run a route on 78% of the Chargers' drop backs. His slot rate this past week was roughly 54% according to PFF. That might come in handy against a Denver defense that saw Josh Downs get some work against them this past week after a pretty miserable week one. Regardless of that matchup though, these peripherals are really strong. He's an awesome target share. He's in an offense that's featuring its wide receivers. And his Chargers offense has the highest pass rate over expected in the NFL through two games. The fact that Allen is still viable in this tier is kind of crazy to me. Now moving on to tight end Kyle Pitts. He's kind of getting it done, you guys. He's seen great route participation rates to start the year. And through two games, Pitts has target shares of 19% and 24%. The Falcons get the Panthers this week. And for what it's worth, Carolina is currently the best matchup for tight ends by adjusted points allowed to start the year. In 2024, no team allowed more fantasy points to the tight end position. So it looks like a really good spot for Kyle Pitts.