1019: 15 Transactions for Week 3

JJ Zachariason (0:02)

This is The Late-Round Podcast with your host, JJ Zachariason.

What's up, everyone? It's JJ Zachariason. In this episode 1019 of The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast, sponsored by DraftKings, thanks for tuning in. There's no better way to get closer to the action than with DraftKings Daily Fantasy, the ultimate destination for football fans. New customers can play free for their share of millions and prizes with their first deposit of $5 or more. Download the DraftKings Daily Fantasy app and enter promo code LATEROUND to play free for your share of millions. The crown is yours. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. In New York, call 8778-HOPE-NY. In Connecticut, call 888-789-7777. 18 plus in most states. Eligibility restrictions apply. Ends December 31st. See terms at draftkings.com/promotions. It's a 15 Transactions Day. Let's get to it. Add Romeo Dobbs and Dontavian Wicks. So Jaden Reid has a broken collarbone. He's going to be sidelined for some time. And as a result of that injury, we now have a clearer picture of this Green Bay Packers wide receiver rotation. Romeo Dobbs is already running as the team's number one wide out. But this injury is going to make Dontavian Wicks a lot more relevant too. He ended up running a round on 65% of Green Bay's drop backs on Thursday, and that was up from 39% in week one. Wicks saw a 22% target share. Wicks looks like he's more of the one-to-one replacement with Jaden Reid. According to PFF, Wicks ran 86% of his routes from the slot in week two. The other relevant Green Bay wide receivers, they were below a 50% slot rate, each and every one of them. Now I would prefer Romeo Dobbs to Dontavian Wicks because we've seen the stability with him. We know he's going to be out there in two wide receiver sets. He's had about a 75% route share to start this season. No other Green Bay wide receivers really close to that. And without Jaden Reid in the mix, we could see a higher target share for Romeo Dobbs too. But Dontavian Wicks, he's the player who's now going to see the biggest boost with where he was at from a snap standpoint. And guys, I've gotten a lot of people hitting me up asking about dropping Matthew Golden. Don't drop Matthew Golden. I know that he hasn't been that good to start the year. His target share hasn't hit 10% in a single game yet. I understand you're frustrated. But we're talking about a first-round rookie. I know there were some warts to his analytical profile. He wasn't a perfect prospect. But if you drafted Matthew Golden, now is definitely not the time to drop him. The Packers just lost Jaden Reid. You've got to be more patient.

Add Wondell Robinson. Week 2 was definitely not a normal week for Wondell Robinson. He had an average depth of target above 10 yards just once last year. On Sunday, he had an A-dot of 16.7. Combine that with a 25% target share, he went off. He had 28 PPR points. I highly doubt we're going to see a performance like that again this season. The target depth was a huge outlier from his typical role. Russell Wilson, he cooked against Dallas. But even still, Wondell Robinson has posted back-to-back games with a 25% target share. What if the Giants want to deploy Wondell Robinson more like that after seeing these results? Then things would get really interesting. So it can't hurt to add Robinson this week. Even though, yes, it does seem like we do this every single year with him.

Sell James Conner. Now, look, this could be nothing, but it could also be something. Tre Benson played a pretty significant role in the passing game for Arizona in week two, and it did hurt James Conner's ceiling. Conner saw a 13.8% target share in week one on a 55% route participation rate, and games where Conner played at least half of Arizona snaps in 2024, he averaged a 55.5% route rate that was right in line with what he saw in week one. Week two was different though. Conner played about 55% of Arizona's offensive snaps. That was lower than what he'd typically seen in 2024 He ran a route on only 41% of their drop backs, that's according to PFF. Tre Benson ran more routes than James Conner in week two, and as a result, Benson had a 24% target share, James Conner 4%. We've now seen Benson score 8.5 and 8.4 PPR points across his two games this season. He's accounted for about 39% of the total PPR points between himself and James Conner. Last season, in games where Benson played while Conner was at a 50% snapshot or better, that slice of points was in Benson's favor at just an 18.6% rate. Basically, Tre Benson is scoring a higher percentage of this backfield's points, and it's kind of working. He's currently got a better success rate, EPA per rush, and rushing yards over expected per rush than James Conner. I mean, guys, take a step back and think about this. Would it be that weird if Tre Benson continues seeing this kind of workload? He's in a backfield with an oft-injured 30-year-old running back. Now, Conner's coming off a usable performance against a bad defense. He hasn't been bad to start the season. But at this moment, you may still be able to get something significant for James Conner. And in my opinion, here in 2025, his ceiling looks capped. Add Jeremy McNichols and Chris Rodriguez. So, Austin Eckler is done for the year. Let's all hope that he gets better. Let's hope we see him on a football field again. But he tours Achilles this past Thursday against the Packers. Many are going to look at Bill Kroski Merritt as the fantasy football winner here. And he does have a little bit more upside now. But there are still a lot of problems. The number one problem being his pass catching profile. Kroski Merritt has had sub 20% route participation rates in each of his first two games. And that completely explains his 3% target share on the season. He didn't have that much of a receiving backbone from college. So that's part of his game that he's got to work on. To be more reliable in fantasy football. And to be more reliable for the commanders, of course. But Osnickler was that dude for the commanders. He was their reliable pass catcher. Now, that's probably going to be Jeremy McNichols. He ended up running more routes than Kroski Merritt in that Thursday night game. Despite the fact that he entered the game late. Now, the other running back that Washington's probably going to deploy is Chris Rodriguez. He's been a healthy scratch through the first two weeks of the year. But like Jacori Kroski Merritt, Rodriguez doesn't come with a strong pass catching backbone. He's more of a redundant piece to Kroski Merritt. That's why to me, Jeremy McNichols is the preferred option off the waiver wire this week between Chris Rodriguez and McNichols. We at least know McNichols has a specific role in this offense. He has a chance to be valuable in PPR formats. For Rodriguez, you're kind of hoping he's going to carve out like a 25 percent running back rush air and maybe see goal line work. Maybe that happens, but even if it does happen, he's not going to be the most reliable player in fantasy football. Because we've seen that they want to use Jackori Kroski-Merritt. But in deeper formats, you could go for Chris Rodriguez.