1016: 10 Trends for Week 2

JJ Zachariason (0:02)

This is The Late-Round Podcast with your host, JJ Zachariason.

What's up everyone, it's JJ Zachariason, and this episode 1016 of The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast, sponsored by DraftKings. Thanks for tuning in. There's no better way to get closer to the action with DraftKings Daily Fantasy, the ultimate destination for football fans. New customers can play free for their share of millions and prizes with their first deposit of $5 or more. Download the DraftKings Daily Fantasy app and enter promo code LATEROUND to play free for your share of millions. The crown is yours. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. In New York, call 8778-HOPE-NY. In Connecticut, call 888-789-7777. 18 plus in most states. Eligibility restrictions apply. Ends December 31st. See terms at draftkings.com/promotions.

We've got 10 Trends to talk about. Let's get right to it. The first trend this week has to do with the Minnesota Vikings' backfield. We finally got some answers to that backfield split. Here's how it went down. Jordan Mason saw 65% of the team's running back rushes. Aaron Jones was at 35%. Aaron Jones saw a 15% target share. Jordan Mason a 5% share. Jones ran around on 52% of the team's drop backs, according to PFF. Jordan Mason 36%. Now I talked about this split during the off season, mentioning that Aaron Jones is a really good pass catcher, and that's what would get in the way of Mason, while also mentioning that I wouldn't be surprised if Mason sees more work on the ground this year. Now that obviously all came to fruition in week one, so I can't say that I'm super shocked. However, I do think Mason's usage, it was better than I expected early on in the season. His receiving upside looks capped, but at Kevin O'Connell offense, with that kind of ground game usage, he moved up a little bit in my rest of season rankings. And that's versus where I had him in my draft rankings. The Steelers were in a back and forth game against the Jets on Sunday, which is a surprise to pretty much everyone who watches football. But one takeaway from that game was how Arthur Smith called the offense. Last season, when looking at pass attempts and rush attempts only, so not drop backs, the Steelers never had a pass rate above 59% in a single game. In week one, they had a pass rate of 60%. It was actually 63% when you factor in drop backs and not just pass attempts. I had mentioned over the off season how, yes, Arthur Smith wants to run the ball. But when he's had competent quarterback play, like when he had Matt Ryan in Atlanta, they actually had a higher pass rate. Now, I'm not saying that's a lock to happen this year with Pittsburgh, but I think we need to be more open minded about that possibility. It's something to watch.

Alvin Kamara saw a 4.9% target share in week one. The last time he saw a sub 5% target share in a game was week 17 of the 2022 season. His lowest single game share last year was 13%. So, yeah, kind of a big deal that he was at 4.9%. Now, to make anyone out there who has Kamara feel a little bit better, he fortunately ran a route on 73% of New Orleans drop backs. In week one, the only other running backs with a 70% route participation rate were Bijon Robinson, Christian McCaffrey, Gervonta Williams, Saquon Barkley and Jonathan Taylor. And shout out to PFF for that route data. Better days are ahead for Kamara in the pass catching department. I almost made Bucky Irving a buy on the 15 transaction show this week because his week one usage was really encouraging. Irving finished the day with an 82% running back rush share. He reached that number just twice last year. Meanwhile, he had a 13.3% target share. That was above average for him compared to what we saw last season. And most importantly, that was on a route participation rate of about 57%. That's a number that he reached only twice last year. Essentially, all of these usage marks that we look for and care about, they came together for Irving in week one. His output wasn't spectacular, but better days are ahead. So yes, I think he is a buy candidate.

I just have to talk about how absolutely ridiculous Jackson Smith and Jigma's week one was. Against the 49ers, JSN saw a 59% target share. He saw 91% of the team's Ariards. Malik Neighbors, he was second in the league this past week in Ariards share. He was at 68%. JSN was at 91%. The crazy part is, he ran just 23 routes. Cooper Cupp ran 26 routes for Seattle. Cupp had three targets on those routes. JSN had 13 targets on 23 routes run. Now, clearly this is not gonna keep up, but JSN moved up in my rest of season rankings compared to where I had him during draft season, and I was not low on JSN during draft season. I just don't know how you can't react to that kind of usage, especially when you compare it to history. I went back and I looked. I want to see if an insane target share like this correlated to full season success, and generally, it does. Since 2011, we've had 33 instances where a wide receiver hit a 50% target share in a game and then went on to play eight or more games in that same season. Of those 33 wide outs, 17 of them ended up finishing the season as a top 12 wide receiver, a wide receiver one in full PPR leagues. 24 of the 33 were top 20 wide outs. Now, obviously, this is because good players are the ones who are usually seeing 50% target shares. But that's entirely the point. Jackson Smith and Jigba is good, and he's got a legit shot to be a great fantasy football asset here in 2025