1014: Mailbag - Managing Early-Season Breakouts, Navigating Depth Charts, and More

JJ Zachariason (0:02)

This is The Late-Round Podcast with your host, JJ Zachariason.

What's up, everyone? It's JJ Zachariason. In this episode, 1,014 of The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast, sponsored by DraftKings. Thanks for tuning in. I've teamed up with DraftKings to kick off week one. Head over to DraftKings, deposit $5, and get rewarded with one DFS ticket for week one. And play free for your shot at a share of millions. The ticket reward amount varies and is based on deposit, but make sure you sign up with promo code LATEROUND today. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or 8778-HOPE-NY or text HOPENY to 467369 in New York. Help is available from Prop & Gambling. Call 888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org in Connecticut. 18 plus most eligible states, but age varies by jurisdiction. Eligibility restrictions apply, void where prohibited, one per customer. Minimum $5 deposit required. Ticket rewards are site credits only valid for use on eligible DFS contests. Ticket rewards are single use and expire 9825 at 820 p.m. Eastern. See terms at draftkings.com/promotions. Sponsored by DraftKings. It's a mailbag episode. Let's get to it.

The first question this week is from Jamie on Patreon. It says, what are the biggest questions you're hoping to find answers to in week one? Backfields are always the most interesting thing to watch for me, at least in week one. Because as I always say, the way backfields are split just comes down to a coaching decision. And we don't exactly know how coaches are thinking this time of year throughout the offseason. Whereas a wide receiver, talent can find its way to targets because multiple wide receivers are on the field at once. Typically, we only have one running back. So I'm really interested to see certain backfield splits. I think the Jets are interesting given what we've heard about Braylon Allen over the last couple of months. I'm interested to see how Pittsburgh in that same game, how they deploy their backfield. Jacksonville is going to be interesting. Even Houston. There are a ton of backfields that I'm interested in seeing this week. And then there's obviously rookies. I'm always curious to see how those rookies look in week one. It's hard to answer this with just one or two specific things. All summer long, we're trying to answer hundreds of questions. But some of those answers, they will be revealed here in week one. And I can't wait.

This next question is from Twitter. This is from at Ben underscore Cumberledge. It says, you had Rodriguez as a buy candidate on this week's 15 transactions episode. How does the McNichols being listed as the RB2 on the depth chart impact your outlook on the commander's backfield in the short and long term, assuming that it has any bearing for you? So just to be clear, he's not a buy, he's an ad, which is very different. I know this seems like semantics, but it's actually not. One is free or it costs a roster spot, while the other, you're trading away a valuable asset to get that player. And I don't think we're there right now with Chris Rodriguez. But I got literally 10 plus questions this week about depth charts, not even an exaggeration. You can head to the Patreon and just look at the mailbag thread. There are multiple questions about these depth charts, and I'm here to tell you, they don't matter. I don't care whatsoever about depth charts. I care 0% about them, maybe like 1% or 2%. But there is no chance that Travion Henderson, as long as he's healthy, will be the number 3 running back in New England this year. That Antonio Gibson will see more touches than Travion Henderson. If that happens, then the Patriots are the most inept organization on planet Earth. Now maybe you want to use depth charts as a high-level understanding of how a team is going to deploy a player. Like sometimes, you'll see guys listed as a slot-wide receiver. That's not nothing, but we generally already know that information anyway. I don't think we're about to see Jeremy McNichols see the second most touches in the Washington backfield. Instead of relying on the depth chart, just rely on the information that you know about these players. McNichols is more of a backup to Eckler, given how he's been deployed in the past. Chris Rodriguez and Bill Croskey Merritt, those two are gonna battle for more early down work. Ignore depth charts, go with your own talent evaluation. That's the message here.

This is AskQuestions from Twitter, it's from at gujtugman, it says, can you talk about how to approach drafting ambiguous backfield situations? Do one of ADP, age or projected role, early down versus third down back, hold higher importance? Do you ever draft both backs in those backfields? So I actually had a few questions about this one too, so let's get into it. As you guys know, I've been talking about ambiguous backfields for years. Long ago, I realized that the running backs who emerge most frequently in fantasy football, they come from more up in the air situations. They're not usually just straight handcuffs. They don't usually have like top 12, top 18 running backs in their backfield. They're usually in these backfields where we have no idea who the starter is. And the reason they're valuable is because a player can emerge from those backfields. And when they do, they become huge draft day values because their costs were down. Fantasy managers will push them down draft boards because these managers say to themselves, I don't know who the best player in this backfield actually is. I'm not going to draft him because I don't know how much work he's going to see. Now something that gets asked pretty frequently and it's asked in this question is about stacking ambiguous backfields. Why not just draft the entire Jacksonville backfield this year? Because then you know that you're capturing the player who ends up emerging. Well that's exactly the problem. Most ambiguous backfields don't have a running back who emerges. It doesn't make them bad bets. It doesn't mean you should avoid those backfields. Because they're still the type of environment that you want to target versus the alternative. It's just that we don't see like loads and loads of league-winning running backs every year. So the odds that you've picked the exact right backfield are pretty slim. So I would much rather throw darts at multiple backfields in order to improve my chances of finding the backfield that ends up producing a super relevant running back. And I can increase my odds in finding who that player is or which one to target by just look at the other average draft position trends and archetype trends that I talk about in the Late-Round Draft Guide. You typically want younger players. It doesn't mean you simply just get the youngest guy in one of these ambiguous backfields. And actually certain ages like year two running backs, they've been better than rookies in the middle rounds over the last 10 or so years. But I'm typically not going to buy into like a 29, 30 year old running back at a high clip. However, I will lean into those players if they have a good pass catching backbone. Like with Minnesota this offseason, I felt better about Aaron Jones than Jordan Mason. Despite Mason being the younger back. And that has to do with the fact that Jones is a really good pass catcher. Jordan Mason, he has a lot of question marks there. Now I totally get the upside of Mason. I think there's a chance that he sees more work on the ground than Aaron Jones this year. But pass catching is the key that unlocks fantasy upside at running back. I leaned into Jalen Warren over Caleb Johnson for the exact same reasons. I didn't fade Mason or Johnson, but I preferred the pass catching back, or the player we think is going to catch more passes, because we have loads of data suggesting that that's the route that we should go in. But in the end, I'm looking at what we know versus what we don't know. I'll often lean into uncertainty when looking at which running back to target. I've preferred Bashall Tutin at cost over the other two running backs in Jacksonville this offseason, because I do think he has the most upside. But me being into Bashall Tutin doesn't mean that I'm totally fading Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby. Now I know some of you only play in one or two leagues, and you have to make that choice. And if I had to make that choice, I would say I would just get Bashall Tutin and not those two other backs. But when you're in a lot of leagues or you're giving a lot of advice like I do, I mean, I'm doing like six podcast episodes a week. I want to be open minded and explain to you guys how I actually feel about these situations. And how I feel is that yes, I like Tutin most, but I don't think Travis Etienne or Tank Bigsby are zeros at all. They're part of a very attractive ambiguous backfield. I just have preferences. And that was Tutin out of that one just because he was a good prospect. He's got a three down skill set. And it's not like Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby are currently can't miss players. But those are the things that go through my mind when looking at these ambiguous backfields. There's not like a formula that you just overlay on them. Nothing is like that in Fantasy Football. There's no golden key that unlocks everything. That's just not how this game works. There's tons of nuance. But we do have to stay grounded with what we know. And what we know, first and foremost, is that pass catching is really, really important and still undervalued at the running back position.