1013: Week 1 Sleepers

JJ Zachariason (0:02)

This is The Late-Round Podcast with your host, JJ Zachariason.

What's up, everyone? It's JJ Zachariason. In this episode, 1,013 of The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast, sponsored by DraftKings, thanks for tuning in. I've teamed up with DraftKings to kick off week one. Head over to DraftKings, deposit $5, and get rewarded with one DFS ticket for week one. And play free for your shot at a share of millions. The ticket reward amount varies and is based on deposit, but make sure you sign up with promo code LATEROUND today. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or 8778-HOPE-NY or text HOPENY to 467369 in New York. Help is available for problem gambling. Call 888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org in Connecticut. 18-plus most eligible states, but age varies by jurisdiction. Eligibility restrictions apply, void where prohibited, one per customer. Minimum $5 deposit required. Ticket rewards or site credits only valid for use on eligible DFS contests. Ticket rewards or single use and expire 9-825 at 820 p.m. Eastern. See terms at draftkings.com/promotions, sponsored by DraftKings. Through the years, there's been one consistent piece of feedback with this sleeper show. I talk about way too many deep sleepers. In the past, I've looked at players rostered in 10-50% of Yahoo! Leagues, and then I've looked at another bucket of players under the 10% mark, and that's too low of a threshold. So this season, I'm changing it up. I'm going to be looking at players rostered in 50-80% of Yahoo! Leagues as one bucket, talking through some guys that I generally like more than the market that week. Then I'll dig into players that are rostered in that 20% to 50% range, and then from there, I'll find players who are rostered in fewer than 20% of leagues who you may want to consider starting. And I'm not going to come at you with just loads and loads of players. I want to be as thoughtful as I can with the players that I'm picking, so we're looking at like 5-7 players per tier. Some weeks last year, that number was closer to 10-12. When I mention names on this show, I'm not saying start them no matter what, just for the record. I'm simply giving you options. Some of you may be in a pinch, and you may need some help off the waiver wire. Others may be looking to gather some information on matchups. Whatever the case may be, know that the sleepers on this show, they're sleepers for a reason. Teams in your league don't have them rostered. They're not the best fantasy football assets in the world. Now, I'll do my best to give you context for where I have these guys ranked, but if you're ever curious about precisely where I have them ranked, you can always check out the LateRound Fantasy Football Patreon. I'm posting weekly rankings over there for the insider tier. With all that out of the way, let's look at week one's sleepers.

Now, as I said, this first group of sleepers consists of players rostered in 50 to 80 percent of Yahoo! Leagues. We'll kick things off with the only quarterback that I have in this group, and that's Trevor Lawrence. Lawrence hopefully got upgrades across the board this season. There's Travis Hunter, who sounds like he's going to play more offense than defense to start the year. There's an improved backfield. They have Bayshaw Tutton now. And most importantly, Liam Cohen is coaching this team. We just watched Cohen lead the Buccaneers to one of the best offenses in football. And Baker Mayfield had a career year. And part of that career year was Baker Mayfield getting it done more on the ground with his legs. And that's what I'm really eager to see with Lawrence. T-Law actually has used his mobility quite a bit throughout his career. He's never finished the season with fewer than 2.7 rushing points per game. That's way higher than where Baker was at prior to last year. And Baker finished the season last year with 3.3 points per game via the rush. The Jags get the Panthers this week in a game that has a solid 46.5 point total. That gives Jacksonville the sixth highest team total on the slate. And Carolina, according to PFF, is entering the season with a third-worst secondary in football. Lawrence is a great play, and you should be using him over players who are drafted over him like Justin Fields and Caleb Williams. I think he's a fringe top 10 quarterback this week. Now, in that same game as Tank Bigsby, who's rostered in 80% of leagues at the time of this recording, I do still prefer Travis Etienne to Tank Bigsby this week, because I'm not sure the pass catching is on Bigsby's side. But Carolina is coming off a season where they were by far the worst team at stopping running backs in fantasy football. And Bigsby still projects to see the most work on the ground in that offense. And like I said, that offense could score a lot of points. It's a game that could be higher scoring. So you can look his way if you need someone in the flex. Now, one player who I have ranked below Bigsby, but could be a cheap option if you're in a deeper league, is Javante Williams. Now, the matchup against Philly, it's not a great matchup, but the Cowboys are pretty big underdogs. And Williams, at least early on in the season, is more than likely going to play the hurry-up role in that Dallas offense. Not only did he see a solid 12.8% target share last year in Sean Payton's offense, but the Broncos used Williams on 61% of their long down and distance snaps according to Fantasy Life data. That was by far the most on the team. So there's definitely a scenario here where Javante Williams sees the most work on the ground for Dallas. That's what we're projecting. And then all the while, he'll see by far the most snaps due to a possible negative game script hitting. And if that happens, he can come away with flex worthy numbers, even in a tough matchup. Now at wide receiver, Josh Downs. Miami's secondary has a chance to be really bad this year. And in the slot this week, they're going to be playing Jason Marshall Jr. He's a rookie fifth round pick out of Florida. Downs is coming off a year where he saw a target on 29% of his routes run. Among 100 plus target wide receivers last year, only Malik neighbors in Pukunakua could match that number. I think Downs could have a really big game. Now, I don't have a tight end in this tier this week, so the last player I want to talk about is Darnell Mooney. As I said in the 15 transactions episode earlier this week, Mooney was one of the best deep ball receivers in football last year. Only Justin Jefferson and Cortland Sutton had more 15 plus air yard receptions. Only Jefferson, George Pickens and DK Metcalf, according to PFF, had more 20 yard receptions. That pairs really well with Michael Pennex, who finished last season with the second highest average depth of target among quarterbacks, among qualified quarterbacks. And the Falcons get a Tampa Bay secondary this week that ranks as a below average one entering the season, according to PFF. That game also has one of the higher totals on this slate. It could be high scoring. So if Mooney is able to go, he's been recovering from that shoulder injury, I'm cool with him as like a wide receiver for maybe even a wide receiver three type.