1010: Mailbag - The Houston Backfield, Jalen Coker's Value, and More

JJ Zachariason (0:02)

This is The Late-Round Podcast with your host, JJ Zachariason.

What's up, everyone? It's JJ Zachariason. In this episode 1010 of The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast, sponsored by DraftKings, thanks for tuning in. Football season's right around the corner. It's next week, and there's no better way to lock in your fantasy dominance earlier than with Best Ball and DraftKings, where you draft once and ride your roster all season long. Right now, DraftKings is giving all customers a can't-miss offer. Draft one, get one. Enter a lineup in the $15 million Best Ball contest for just $20, and you'll score another Best Ball ticket to play free for a share of that $15 million, giving you a second shot to win big. It's easy. Just draft your dream team once, no weekly management required, and let your top scorers automatically start each week. Across the whole season, every breakout star, every clutch play, every touchdown will count toward your quest for a share of $15 million. As you know, I'm drafting over there, and I've been documenting things with the Becoming a Best Ball Bro series. And that series is officially complete for season 2 So you can listen to those episodes to help you out as well. So download the DraftKings Daily Fantasy app now to draft your $20 Best Ball lineup to play for a share of $15 million and get a second ticket to play free for a share of that $15 million. That's two chances to win big without ever setting your lineup again. Draft one, get one, only on DraftKings. The crown is yours. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. In New York, call 8778-HOPE-NY or text HOPE-NY to 467369 In Connecticut, help is available from Problem Gambling. Call 888-789-77777 or visit ccpg.org. 18 plus in most eligible states, but age varies by jurisdiction. Eligibility restrictions apply. Void wear prohibited. One per customer. Enter the Best Ball $15 million headliner contest by 9-425 to get one bonus entry. $20 entry required. Reward expires in 30 days. See terms at draftkings.com/nfldashbestdashball.

Sponsored by DK. It's a mailbag episode today. Let's get to these questions.

The first question this week is from Noah on Patreon. It says, I know you're out on Travis Kelsey, but do you think he can maintain some decent production when Rashi Rice is out or even with Rice out, are you still out? So with Rashi Rice and that suspension, this is one of the better outcomes for anyone who is drafting Rice, in my opinion, because we're not having to wait. It's at the beginning of the season when you have healthy players and there aren't any bi-weeks and six games, that's a lot for sure, but it could have been worse. To me, six games is always kind of the median outcome here, especially after that report from a couple of weeks ago. Now, without Rice in the mix, that's obviously good news for Travis Kelsey, but that doesn't mean that I'm now in on Kelsey, because that's all going to be reflected in ADP, and I've known for weeks now that Rashid Rice was going to be suspended. The fact that this suspension is now at the front end of the season, that means that Kelsey can get off to a hot start, sure. But I really, really worry about an old tight end during the fantasy football playoffs, during those weeks. Like Rashid Rice should be back during the final stretch of the season. And last year when Rice was healthy, Kelsey averaged five PBR points per game and a 14% target share. He was completely unusable. And I've said this time and time again, but pretty much every non-volume related peripheral for Travis Kelsey last year took a hit. Yards per outrun, yards after the catch per reception. He finishes the tight end six and PBR points per game because of volume. And when Rice is back, with Xavier Worthy now a second year player, with Hollywood Brown potentially healthier, with Isaiah Pacheco back, I think it's fair to be concerned about what that target share is going to look like for Travis Kelsey. I don't think that we can just pencil in a 25% share. So I'm still out on Kelsey. I actually think there'd be more appeal for Kelsey if we knew that this suspension was happening later in the season, but it's not. He might get off to an okay start, and maybe you're fine with that before moving on. I'm just not at his current cost. I'd rather just wait at the position. And I'm very nervous about what he's going to provide at the end of the year. And that's the most important part of the Fantasy Football Calendar.

This next question is from Nicholas on Patreon. It says, with the Adam Thielen trade, does this tell us the coaches are confident in Tedaro McMillan and Jalen Coker? And are they getting bumped in the rankings due to this? So I'm not moving Tedaro McMillan because he was already going to get his. I think this move of sending Adam Thielen to Minnesota tells us most about Jalen Coker and how they feel about Coker. And they should feel good about Coker. I wrote about this back in March when the Late-Round Prospect Guide was released because in that guide, I have year two profiles. And Coker is a year two player. Coker was better than Xavier LeGette last year in yards per out run. A lot better. And the thing that was nice about his production was that even when Adam Thielen was active, because remember, he did miss some time last year, but even when Adam Thielen was active last year, Coker was still very good per out. Without Thielen, he had a yards per out run rate of 1.75. With him, it was 1.68. And when he played with Thielen, only 43% of his routes were coming out of the slot. It was just a really impressive season for an undrafted rookie. And that led to him having Journey Comparables, which are players who had similar ZAP scores and Year 2 scores. They went on a similar journey as one another. But his Journey Comparables were Jacoby Myers, Alan Hearns and Preston Williams. Myers and Hearns had pretty usable Year 2 seasons. And I think Coker has a legitimate chance to be the number 2 option in this offense. Because Xavier LeGette was not overly impressive last year. And he came into the league with a whole bunch of question marks. The Panthers are going to use McMillan and LeGette on the outside and Jalen Coker in the slot. And don't see a bunch of Tavey and Sanders either. I think that he gets a little bit of a bump here too. It's a young offense and they did lose a lot of experience with Thielen. But they're not going to make that move unless they feel really good about Jalen Coker, in my opinion. He's a huge winner of that trade and he should be on everyone's late-round radar.