1009: Bold Predictions

JJ Zachariason (0:02)

This is The Late-Round Podcast with your host, JJ Zachariason.

What's up, everyone? It's JJ Zachariason. In this episode 1009 of The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast, sponsored by DraftKings, thanks for tuning in. Football season is right around the corner, and there's no better way to lock in your fantasy dominance early than with Best Ball on DraftKings where you draft once and ride your roster all season long. And right now, DraftKings is giving all customers a can't-miss offer. Draft one, get one. Enter a lineup in the $15 million Best Ball Contest for just $20, and you'll score another Best Ball ticket to play free for a share of that $15 million, giving you a second shot to win big. It's easy. Just draft your dream team once, no weekly management required, and let your top scorers automatically start each week. Across the whole season, every breakout star, every clutch play, every touchdown will count toward your quest for a share of $15 million. As you know, I'm drafting over there, I'm documenting things with Becoming a Best Ball Bro, so you can use the information from that show to help you out as well. So download the DraftKings daily fantasy app now to draft your $20 best ball lineup to play for a share of $15 million, and get a second ticket to play free for a share of that $15 million. That's two chances to win big without ever setting your lineup again. Draft one, get one, only on DraftKings. The crown is yours. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. In New York, call 8778-HOPE-NY or text HOPE-NY to 467369 In Connecticut, help is available for problem gambling. Call 888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org. 18 plus in most eligible states, but age varies by jurisdiction. Eligibility restrictions apply. Avoid where prohibited, one per customer. Enter the best ball $15 million headliner contest by 9-425 to get one bonus entry. $20 entry required. Reward expires in 30 days. See terms at draftkings.com/nfldashbestdashball.

Sponsored by DK. We've gone over a lot of stuff since last season ended. There was all the prospecting work during draft season. There were some strategy episodes of the show. There was the infamous Roma Dunze versus a Mecheg Buka conversation back in May. We've done players to target, players to avoid, and that's just on the podcast. Outside of this show, you've had The Late-Round Prospect Guide and The Late-Round Draft Guide. You've had live streams, the Patreon. There's been so much content and so much research. It's about time for this season to start. But before that happens, I've got to fire off some bold takes. Now, a lot of the bold predictions content in the fantasy football space, it's just vibes based. And some of this is vibes based too, don't get me wrong. But I still want to stay true to myself as an analyst and just be logical. And I want to bring that to the bold prediction analysis. I always think of this as a range of outcomes exercise. I'm not looking at median outcomes here. I'm looking at the high end and the low end, and I'm explaining hopefully thoughtfully how those outcomes could come to be. And I hope this is more than just entertainment for you. I genuinely hope you can walk away from today's show, thinking about things a little bit differently after hearing the why. But today, I'll be talking about ten bold predictions for the fantasy season. And there are actually five more of them that I'm going to email out in the Late-Round newsletter. Those won't go out until Thursday, so if you're not subscribed, again, it's absolutely free. I'm giving you two days to subscribe. Just head to lateround.com, click newsletter, and submit your email address. It's that simple. And you may want to do that anyway because in-season content starts next week, and I'll be sending my 15 transactions newsletter every Tuesday morning. So again, more bold predictions will come your way on Thursday. Just subscribe for free to that newsletter over on lateround.com. That's enough with the intro, though. Let's get to these predictions.

The first bold prediction is that Drake London will finish as a top three wide receiver in fantasy football this year. Now, this is bold because obviously there's a lot of good wide receiver competition out there, and Drake London right now is a fringe top ten wide out by ADP. But, I think this could happen. He's been really good in the NFL to start his career. He's seen a 2 yards per out run rate in two of his first three seasons. We usually only see that from elite, elite wide receivers. Over his three years, he's had target shares of 29%, 23% and 29%. Basically, his peripherals have been awesome. And now you get Michael Penick's under center for Atlanta. He's not afraid to take chances down the field. In fact, last year he had an average depth of target of 10.6. Among all Atlanta Falcons quarterback since 2011 who had 100 or more drop backs, that A-dot by Michael Penick's, that was the highest. And in his three starts last year, yes, limited sample size, London had almost a 39% target share per game rate. So what if all of this just continues? What if Penick's continues to push it down the field, and Drake London keeps seeing a really high target share? And remember, Darnell Mooney's banged up right now. So I could definitely see a monster season from Drake London. The second bold prediction, Trevor Lawrence will outscore Baker Mayfield. This is bold if you look at football guy's average draft position data, which is an aggregate. Mayfield's being drafted as a QB 7 Trevor Lawrence is the QB 20 But here's why this could happen. Now obviously, this seems like a Liam Cohen based prediction. And it kind of is, but it's kind of not. As I've been saying this offseason, Baker Mayfield, he's bound to regress. He had a 7.2% touchdown rate last year, which was by far the highest of his career. And quarterbacks who have been close to that mark historically, they haven't done well the following season, or at least nearly as well. There have been 15 quarterbacks since 2011 who had a touchdown rate between 6.7% and 7.7%. So those are numbers that are plus or minus 0.5% from Baker Mayfield's touchdown rate last year. Of those 15 quarterbacks, their average points per game in that season, in that end season where they had a high touchdown rate, it was 21.4. That's in standard scoring. The following year, their average points per game was 17.2. Every single quarterback saw a drop in points per game. And losing Liam Cohen as his offensive coordinator, that's not going to help things. And the injuries across that offense, that's not going to help either. But Baker Mayfield's loss of Cohen is Trevor Lawrence's gain. Last season, Lawrence was solidly in the top 20 in fantasy points per drop back. That's one of the most predictive metrics that you're going to find a quarterback. And Lawrence has some rushing upside too. He's scored between 2.7 and 3.7 points per game via rushing every single year of his career. Mayfield, meanwhile, who was a really good rusher last year, he's only been well above that 2 mark just once, just last year. Now, a lot of quarterbacks could have been thrown into Trevor Lawrence's spot in this prediction. Whether it's Jordan Love, Justin Herbert, whoever. I just went with Trevor Lawrence because I think he's a great value very, very late in drafts.