$71K or $205K? The Bitcoin Setup That Could Decide This Cycle

Caleb Franzen (0:00)

I think BTC has re-entered a new bull market environment, and I will continue to pound the table on that so long as BTC stays above.

John Gillan (0:06)

One year ago this week, BTC hit its all-time high. Since then, we have had a full bear market, and now it looks like BTC is trying to confirm the start of a new bull market. But is this a breakout or a retest, or are we about to fall back into bear market territory? And what do investors need to know about all of this? Hello and welcome to Milk Road Crypto, the show that knows that BTC is just retesting its breakout, but everyone is still traumatized from the bear market and the timeline is panicking. I'm your host John Gillan. Today is Wednesday, October 7th, and today we are joined by the chart master himself, one of my favorite guests, Caleb Franzen. Caleb is the founder of Cubic Analytics. He called this bear market when Bitcoin slipped below 97K. He is now flip bullish. He's here to explain what is going on and give us a whole bunch of alpha. Caleb is one of the smartest analysts in the business. If that sounds good to you, make sure you like and subscribe, share this episode with somebody who's gonna enjoy it. As a reminder, our podcast today is free and that would not be possible without our wonderful partners at Nexo, the digital asset platform that lets you trade, earn and borrow all in one place, all in one account. So keep in your app for more information on them later in the show. But for now, welcome back to Milk Road Crypto, my good friend Caleb. Sir, how are you?

Caleb Franzen (1:13)

Let's rock and roll, man. I love how you said investors are a bit traumatized in this market because I think that's so appropriate. It's the same read I have on things. So I'm super excited to talk about what I'm feeling in this market and the different things that we're both seeing. So let's get into it, man.

John Gillan (1:27)

All right. Well, let's catch up to where we are. You flipped bearish when Bitcoin lost 97K, and since then, I've been monitoring your work very closely, and you've now started to pivot back in a bullish direction. Talk me through what was the signal in the market that caused you to flip bearish when we lost 97K and what's changed your mind now when you're seeing bullish price action starting to happen here?

Caleb Franzen (1:50)

Yeah. I think one of my super, not to pat myself too much on the back here, but one of my superpowers as an investor is my ability to change my mind and adapt based on data, right? And I think as much as possible, the recipe for investing is actually quite simple. We want to own uptrends as much as possible, and we want to own as little of downtrends as possible as well. And so when I saw Bitcoin flipping into what I believed looked like downtrend characteristics in November of 2025, I had to respect the trend. And now today I'm seeing quite a bit of a different dynamic.

I think I received a lot of criticism on that call from last year and that's fine. I was kind of going against the herd in a lot of ways.

And I think one of the key distinctions that I had is I continued to reiterate a bullish look on what I was seeing in terms of the equity market. And that really confused a lot of people because how could I still be bullish on equities if Bitcoin, I was proclaiming, was now in a new bear market? It's just simply because both of those asset classes were exhibiting two different types of trends. Today, as I look at market conditions, as I look at risk assets, I see Bitcoin reasserting itself back into uptrend behavior, back into bull market dynamics, while equities have continued to be in bull market dynamics. And that's the full type of risk on environment that I love to be an investor in. That's where we get rewarded as investors. We can only manufacture arbitrage really in two ways. We can buy low and sell high, or we can buy high and sell higher. That's really, that's the name of the game right there, plain and simple. So for me, as you know, John, everything comes down to price. I analyze price because I believe it's the best crystal ball that we have available to us to tell us what the market's expectations quite literally are. And so when all risks and opportunities can be condensed into one single data point, price, I think that in and of itself contains all the information that we need. And then we can just adapt based on how price signals do change and adapt. So for me, what caused me to turn bearish last year was price. Okay.