MacroVoices #542 Luke Gromen: As The Conflict Turns

**SPEAKER_1** (0:07)
This is Macro Voices, the free weekly financial podcast targeting professional finance, high net worth individuals, family offices and other sophisticated investors. Macro Voices is all about the brightest minds in the world of finance and macroeconomics telling it like it is, bullish or bearish, no holds barred.
Now, here are your hosts, Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna.

**Erik Townsend** (0:33)
Macro Voices episode 542 was produced on July 23rd, 2026 I'm Erik Townsend.
Forest for the Trees founder, Luke Gromen returns as this week's feature interview guest. Luke and I will revisit how the Strait of Hormuz stayed closed for more months than almost anyone thought possible, but also why the price response that both Luke and I expected from the crude oil market didn't materialize, along with what comes next as the conflict re-escalates. We'll also cover precious metals, inflation, monetary policy, and much more. Then stay tuned for our new and improved Macro Voices trading desk, where Patrick and Maciel will deliver a fast-paced market wrap featuring Patrick's Trade of the Week, fresh positioning insights from the Commitment of Traders reports, and a concise breakdown of the key markets you need to watch.

**Patrick Ceresna** (1:23)
I'm Patrick Ceresna. The S&P 500 spent the week pulling back from its highs and consolidating ahead of the hard of earning season, with several of the MAG7 set to report and potentially determine the next leg for the broader market. Crude oil meanwhile continues its powerful advance, rising roughly another 1,300 basis points week over week, and trading near $88.43 at the time of this recording. We'll take a closer look at those moves and the key charts and positioning signals after the interview on the Macro Voices trading desk. Now, this week's feature interview guest is Forrest for the Trees founder, Luke Gromen. Erik and Luke discuss how the Iran conflict, China's energy strategy, fiscal expansion, and mounting pressure on global bond markets may accelerate the shift towards financial repression, gold, and a more fragmented monetary system.
Erik's interview with Luke Gromen is coming up as Macro Voices continues, right here at macrovoices.com.

**SPEAKER_1** (2:33)
And now, with this week's special guest, here's your host, Erik Townsend.

**Erik Townsend** (2:38)
Joining me now is Forrest for the Trees founder, Luke Gromen. And Luke, it's great to get you back on the show. Last time we had you on, the Iran crisis was just starting. You and I got ridiculed for talking about even the possibility that it could last as long as until July. Everybody said, no, it's gonna be two or three weeks.
The crazy thing is, it was your call that it could go as long as July. You got that exactly right, but I don't think you were expecting the price to be where it was when we got to... Wait a minute, that was the beginning of July. Oh, now it is. I have to take stock of what minute it is that we're recording in, because it'll all be different by the time our listeners hear this. So, what's happened the way we thought it was gonna happen?
What's happened the way we didn't think it was gonna happen, and where do you see it headed from here?

**Luke Gromen** (3:25)
Thanks for having me back on, of course. We wrote a mea culpa of sorts to clients probably two or three weeks ago, where we said, look, we had high conviction that the Iran War was gonna last much longer than consensus thought. That's absolutely happened. We had high conviction that Hormuz would still be closed in May and probably in June and possibly on July 4th. And as we see here today, July 21st, it's closed again. That's worked. And where we got it wrong was really twofold. Number one, the price, obviously. If you would have told me, hey, Hormuz is still gonna be closed, I would have thought equity indices would be lower. I would have thought inflation higher, I would have thought oil higher. And I think part and parcel to the oil side of that has been the reaction of China, which a lot of other folks got wrong as well in terms of their reaction, which is to say in the first half of 26 alone, they shifted 1.4 million barrels a day of demand for oil to EVs. They reduced demand overall for by three to four million barrels a day. That has to be in part a rundown of their PR reserves. And that's really an astonishing thing, that you're able to take oil demand down by that much. And yet, it was conventional wisdom that China would be worst heard or one of the worst hurt by what was going on. And yet, China's exports to the world were up 27% year over year in May. China's corporate profits year to date up 19, 20%.