India's US Trade Deal in 2026: Can It Survive the Iran Oil Shock?

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**SPEAKER_2** (1:08)
This is Invest Talk from KPP Financial, helping investors make sense of the markets one day at a time. Here's your host, Luke Guerrero.

**Luke Guerrero** (1:23)
Good afternoon, fellow investors, and welcome to the Monday, July 20th, 2026 edition of Invest Talk.
I'm your host, Luke Guerrero, and I'll be with you over the next hour as we dissect the stories that matter, talk a little bit about what happened in the market today, and of course, answer your finance and investment questions.
To that end, before we talk about today's market performance and run down those show topics, let's tackle this caller question now.

**SPEAKER_4** (1:52)
Dave from Ohio. Let me just get your opinion on US. Bancorp, USB.

**SPEAKER_5** (1:59)
Is this a good time to get in?

**SPEAKER_4** (2:01)
They're waiting for your answer.

**SPEAKER_5** (2:02)
Thank you.

**Luke Guerrero** (2:04)
USB is not a company that makes little thumb drives where you store photos or transfer files. It is US. Bancorp. It's not exactly one of the large banks, right? It's about $100 billion market cap company. It falls into the category of what would be called super regional banks. They do consumer banking. They bank for businesses. They got a pretty big wealth management arm, division wing, if you will. They actually have one of the largest payment processing divisions along with what has over the last couple of years become a pretty well expanded capital markets division.
About 42% of their revenue comes from that wealth corporate and financial banking. Consumer business banking is about 31%. I mentioned payment services because it makes up about 26% of their revenue.
Recently, they reported earnings just last week actually with earnings per share at about $1.35. That was a 5.5% beat. The market definitely liked it.
Performed pretty well on the back of solid earnings. One of the reasons being 22% year-over-year growth and earnings per share. They had a record net revenue that was up 10.1% year-over-year. Again, excellent growth across the board. Then the thing the market really likes, they actually raised full-year revenue guidance. Now, this name, it's up about 18.3% year-to-date, up 38.19% over the past 52 weeks.
Again, this is something that we've been talking about for a while because people are understandably right now wanting to get exposure to financials. But I still worry about the concentration of these regional banks, even this super regional bank, if you will.
In spite of its impressive quarter and its guidance raise, it's gotten to a point where, okay, it's trading above its forward-looking price to earnings. It's trading above its average price to book value and the asymmetric risk you have by being exposed to these regional banks, even the larger ones, I think outweigh the benefits compared to just investing in one of those large fortress balance sheet banks. So, for right now, I think I'm going to have to keep USB on my watch list. Thanks for the call. We had a great show on Friday. We looked into how the war has affected bonds versus stocks and how bonds specifically have been responding to the Iran conflict. We also answered a listener question on Netflix. If you happened to miss last Friday's episode, I encourage you to go check it out and remember the best way to never miss an episode is to subscribe wherever you get your podcasts. Now, on to today, where our main story is about India and whether or not the US trade deal can survive the Iran oil shock, because you have to understand that India is facing this double hit from the Iran conflict, from oil import costs surging, while its rupee is also weakening and that in turn squeezes corporate margins and really complicates the country's ambitious trade negotiations with the US. So we'll look at how the world's most populous country is navigating this energy crisis and what it means for emerging market investors. We also will touch on a statistical change to inflation coming in the near future. A story about the dangers of perpetual futures in the crypto market. If you don't know what that is, you'll know after our discussion. It should be time at the end of the show, we'll touch on how even though it appears all of these AI companies are making massive deals with infrastructure companies, it might not be as locked in as it seems. We also have some voice meant calls ready to play, including one on investing factors and another on RTX Corporation, Tigger RTX, as well as some comments that came in from the, rather questions that came in from the comment section of the InvestTalk YouTube channel.