Breaking Points: Former Top General Says U.S. Bases in the Middle East Are Fading Out

**SPEAKER_1** (0:01)
When military power meets geography, even the strongest fleet can run into hard limits. There's a fascinating conversation from Breaking Points where Krystal Ball and Saagar Enjeti speak with Sal Maragleaniano from "What's Going On With Shipping" about the Strait of Hormuz and U.S. naval logistics. His core claim is pretty stark. How stark are we talking? He says "US bases in the region are no longer viable."
Sal argues the United States actually saw this coming before the conflict fully escalated. He points to the removal of Navy and Coast Guard vessels from the Persian Gulf on February 28th. That's a significant date. So where are they projecting force from now? Diego Garcia, which is 2,200 miles from the battlefield. And even that base doesn't have everything needed, so supplies have to keep moving forward under constant pressure. That creates serious strain on the fleet, right? What's the actual capacity here? The Navy can field about 70 destroyers, but only a third can be forward-deployed at once. Sal warns we're going to see "protracted degradation of the ships, the crews, and the maintenance." He says it's already visible in reporting around the Abraham Lincoln, where keeping even minimum supplies becomes extremely difficult. And fuel is another pressure point. What's happening there?
Bunker fuel costs surged after the war began. Although prices came down somewhat, they remain elevated. Singapore and other hubs are running low, container and bulk shipping is consolidating voyages, and the cost of moving goods is climbing.
Slower supply chains, higher prices later. Now, the administration has made claims about total oil movement through the Strait of Hormuz. What does Sal say about that? He says they're missing the method. He describes night convoys guarded by U.S. aircraft and drones, followed by ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman. It's a five-day round trip, and the result isn't 18 million barrels a day, but more likely 8 to 9 million. So there's a massive "donut hole" in global supply after February 28th, billions of barrels effectively missing. That's dangerous if another shock hits the market. Exactly. And the Iranians are still contesting the strait. The U.S. relies on convoys made up of state-linked tanker fleets from Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE.
Sal describes recent attacks and a U.S. response that struck Iranian tankers, a "tanker-for-tanker" logic. It's a dangerous game of brinksmanship to see which economy breaks first. And the Red Sea is compounding everything, right?
Absolutely. A large crude carrier recently had to leave Saudi Arabia half-loaded, go through the Suez Canal, finish loading on the other side, then sail around Africa. That added about a month. Container prices have spiked from roughly $1,500 to as high as $9,000.
The longer these disruptions continue, the more ordinary goods will cost.