Workers are barely getting ahead in this economy artwork

Workers are barely getting ahead in this economy

Marketplace All-in-One

July 16, 2026

Annual inflation is clocking in at 3.5%, which is still high by recent standards. That's also the same rate at which average hourly earnings grew in June. While workers barely broke even in June, they actually lost purchasing power to inflation in April and May.
Speakers: Kimberly Adams, Diane Swank, Mitchell Hartman, Erica Grotian, Keith Spencer, John Lear, Bridget, Ryan
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**Kimberly Adams** (1:31)
A check in on how the latest developments in the war with Iran are showing up in oil prices and the rest of the global economy.
From Marketplace in New York, I'm Kimberly Adams. With the war in Iran resumed and a US naval blockade back in place, oil prices continue to rise. This morning, Brent Crude oil is at $85.44 a barrel. Prior to the strikes resuming, Brent Crude was pricing in the low 70s, and before the ceasefire, oil prices rose above $100 a barrel. For more on this, I'm joined by Diane Swank, Chief Economist at the audit tax and advisory firm KPMG. Diane, good morning.

**Diane Swank** (2:11)
Good morning.

**Kimberly Adams** (2:12)
How much of what we're seeing with oil prices right now is driven by actual supply disruption versus just people's fears?

**Diane Swank** (2:21)
A lot of what we've seen has been fear related, although we have also seen disruptions in supply.
What mitigated it was that we had extraordinary inventories that were used as a buffer to drain a lot of those inventories so that we wouldn't have to feel the pain. You layer on top of that some of the things that are flying underneath the radar screen, and that is the war with Ukraine and Russia. Russia has now stopped exporting much of its diesel fuel. Diesel fuel prices have shot up dramatically, and refined products, refining capacity, a lot of the excess refining capacity is locked inside of the Strait of Hormuz.

**Kimberly Adams** (3:01)
And you mentioned all the drawdown of reserves. US oil reserves are at the lowest level since 1983, so it's not like we have the same kind of buffer moving forward.

**Diane Swank** (3:12)
Exactly, and that's really important, and it's one of the things that sort of is, I think, confusing to people because they see oil prices had come down quite a bit. And of course, we tend to see oil prices move around a lot, but prices at the pump go up like a rocket and come down like a feather. That's a common saying. And that's because on the way up, oftentimes gas stations are squeezed and they don't get as much, make as much money or sometimes lose money. And then when prices are falling, they try to recoup those margins and then consumers get angry because they feel like that's price gouging. They're also drawing upon more expensive inventories that are now in their tanks. And it takes a while to sort of cycle that all through.

**Kimberly Adams** (3:57)
Diane Swank is chief economist at the audit tax and advisory firm KPMG. Thank you, Diane.

**Diane Swank** (4:03)
Thank you.

**Kimberly Adams** (4:04)
The US. Census Bureau says retail and food sales in June were up 0.2% from the previous month, a slowdown from May when retail sales increased a revised 1%. Compared to June of last year, consumer spending was up 6.7%.
Another data point out this morning, weekly unemployment insurance claims, which fell by 8,000 from last week, an indication of relatively low levels of layoffs. About 208,000 people filed for unemployment benefits for the first time last week, the fewest in 10 weeks.

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