Will Chevron-Iraq deal solve oil woes?

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**Kai Ryssdal** (1:56)
On the program this Friday, that Friday thing that we do, we'll do a little social media too. And then, Vegas baby, from American Public Media, this is Marketplace.
In Los Angeles, I'm Kai Ryssdal. It is Friday today. This one is the 17th of July. Good as always to have you along, everybody. We are in the interests of time. Just going to jump right in. Katherine Rampel is at MSNOW and The Bullwork as well. Anna Swanson is at The New York Times. Hey, you two.

**SPEAKER_1** (2:35)
Hey, Kai. Hey, Kai.

**Kai Ryssdal** (2:37)
Katherine, you get to go first.
The six letters with which we will start are CPI and PPI. When you got those inflation numbers, what was the first thing you thought of?

**Katherine Rampell** (2:49)
Almost who cares?
Not who cares really, but it's like, they're just so dated at this point. This is the problem. These numbers are always very backward-looking, not by design, but just like-

**Kai Ryssdal** (3:03)
Well, you're kind of by design, right?

**Katherine Rampell** (3:05)
Well, they're not intended to be backward-looking. It's just that's the only option we have, I guess. But they are especially backward-looking right now because the erratic policy-making and the on-again, off-again, on-again, off-again war with Iran just makes any data imprint extremely perishable.
These snapshots are from a point in time that in some ways is in no way relevant to the point in time today, much less in the coming months. So, great that the numbers were softer than expected, that inflation was cooler than expected, not as bad as expected. But since those metrics were calculated, a lot has changed and the war is back on again. So, it's really hard to get too excited by a couple of soft imprints.

**Kai Ryssdal** (4:06)
So, Anna, the thing I've been sort of harping on all week is that this is a moment in time. They are blips, one or two data points do not a trend make. And in fact, Beth Hammack, the president of the Cleveland Fed, came out on LinkedIn on a statement either yesterday or today and said, you know what, people in my district, the Cleveland Fed district, are saying inflation is broad-based and they're really getting squeezed by it. And I guess my question to you is, there is inflation yet to come, especially now because, as Catherine said, the war is back on and oil is again pricey.

**Anna Swanson** (4:40)
Yes. No, I think that's true. I mean, there was some encouraging signs on this in the inflation data though, which is not just that consumer prices were down due to oil prices, but also the core inflation, which strips out more volatile things like food and energy was flat month on month. So, I mean, it's definitely a mixed picture. I mean, things are not great, but I do think that there are signs here that if the war were to go away, we would be on a fairly good footing as an economy. The issue is that we just don't seem to know how to make this pesky war go away, right?