Why Democrats think they can win back Iowa from Trump

**Justin Webb** (0:00)
Hello, it's Justin, and you're about to hear Americast. We are delighted to have you with us, and if you enjoy what you hear, please do consider subscribing to the podcast. That way, you'll never miss an episode. Now, on with today.

**Sarah Smith** (0:12)
Today, we're asking whether Democrats could actually win in Iowa, a red state that Donald Trump's Republicans have been dominating for more than the last decade. But there's real optimism among Democrats after last night's primaries for both the Senate and the governor's race. They've got a wealthy pro-hunting candidate for governor who's facing a Republican pick who's not the one that Donald Trump endorsed, and then look at the Senate. You've got a Democrat who's a Paralympian backed by the whole establishment wing of the party. So, are Democrats right to get their hopes up about Iowa? Welcome to Americast.
Americast.

**SPEAKER_5** (0:49)
Americast from BBC News.

**Justin Webb** (0:52)
You hear that sound?

**Anthony Zurcher** (0:53)
Oh, I think when I hear that sound, it reminds me of money.

**SPEAKER_7** (0:56)
We didn't start this war, but under President Trump, we are finishing it. This is a big cover-up, and this administration is engaged in it.

**Justin Webb** (1:04)
This guy has Trump Derangement Syndrome.

**Josh Turek** (1:06)
I have four words for you. Turn the volume up.

**Sarah Smith** (1:15)
Hello, it's Sarah in the BBC's Washington Bureau.

**Anthony Zurcher** (1:18)
And it's Anthony right here with Sarah in Washington, DC.

**Justin Webb** (1:20)
And it's Justin in the Worldwide Headquarters of Americast in London, England. And I should say before we start, it is just going up to three o'clock in the afternoon on Wednesday in London. And that matters, of course, particularly this time around, because we're going to be talking about election results that are not necessarily fully in. But I think we can be pretty confident about what we're saying all the same. And what we're saying, guys, is just fascinating, isn't it? Because we're going to be talking mainly about a rural state and Democratic Party successes in that rural state and also potential big pitfalls setbacks for Donald Trump in that rural state. And this really matters and it matters in the state we're talking about, which is Iowa. But it matters more widely as well, doesn't it?

**Anthony Zurcher** (2:03)
Yeah, because it is going to be the key for Democrats in these midterm elections. Iowa has a Senate race that is currently leaning towards Republicans. But if Democrats could flip that seat that's held by Joni Ernst who is retiring, they could be one step closer, as we discussed in the past, to taking control of the Senate. There is also a governor's race there. Iowa, we talk about Iowa and I think we all know and are familiar with Iowa more than most typical Midwestern states because it has had a traditional position as one of the early states determining who a presidential nominee is going to be. So governor of Iowa actually makes a difference in that contest, as well as if Iowa does become more of a battleground state in 2028, whoever the party is that controls the governorship might have a little more influence in helping their candidate to win that state.

**Sarah Smith** (2:52)
Yeah, and I mean Donald Trump is popular there. He won it three times, 2016, 2020, 2024 So even though he lost the election across the country in 2020
And so it is perceived largely as a Republican state now, but Democrats have won in living memory, in my living memory, haven't they Anthony? I mean, it's not one of the deepest dread states in the country.

**Anthony Zurcher** (3:11)
Barack Obama carried Iowa in 2012
I think the last time that Iowa went Democratic in the Senate race was 2008 It's not like Texas where we were talking about half a century of Republican control. It does have a history of swinging sometimes to the Democrats. And the Democrats in 2018 actually picked up three of the four House seats there. So also, they have a hope. And I think that part of the reason why they have a hope now is because of the unique things that are going on in the American Midwest with farmers and unique things that are going on in Iowa.

**Sarah Smith** (3:46)
Yeah, and the farmers are fascinating because they broke really big across the Midwest for Donald Trump and are suffering quite particularly from the war in Iran because not only has the price of fuel gone up, the price of fertilizer has gone up as well. There have been issues with Trump's trade tariffs also hurting the farming sector. They've had a little bit of a bailout, but probably not as much as they feel that they deserve. So watching what happens with that vote is going to be really interesting, Justin.