WARNING: THE INFLATION SH*T HAS HIT THE FAN! | Simply Originals

**SPEAKER_1** (0:00)
The inflation has hit the fan. US. May PPI came in higher than expected at 6.5%.
CPI surged to 4.2%.
Oh, here's a number that should make you throw up that morning coffee in your mouth. US national debt, when combined with unfunded liabilities for Social Security and Medicare, now works out to roughly 1 million per American household, 39.23 trillion and rolling right along, baby. US debt has surpassed 100% of GDP for the first time since World War II. US national debt projected to soar to 64 trillion over the next decade. Probably fine. The four horsemen of the fiat apocalypse are upon us. War, pestilence, famine and monetary debasement. Like I said, the transitory inflation has hit the fan. Now, we're not here to judge inflation on its choice of adjective. But the science, the monetary biology, if you will, is clear. I don't care how much Trump loves it. We will not play a part in supporting or going along with the dollar's monetary illness. The numbers are in. They're horrendous. And only weeks into his reign as Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh may be forced to defy Trump and raise interest rates. Let me say that again slowly because it's beautiful. The man Trump, handpicked to cut rates, may have to do the one thing his patron forbade, raise them into a debt spiral just in time for July 4th fireworks. So here's the question that should be keeping you up at night. What happens when the people running the printer finally admit the printer is the problem and they still can't turn it off? Wrap the hell in because the four horsemen aren't a metaphor today. They're a supply chain. And by the end of this video, you're going to understand first how a flesh eating worm, soaring energy prices and empty grain silos, all turn into the same number on your CPI. And the CPI is being very generous. Then we're going to take a look at why those numbers locked Kevin Warsh in a room with two exits and a fire is behind each door. Third, why Bitcoin crashed into the hottest inflation in three years. And why that's the most bullish thing that could have happened. Last and most importantly, what do you do before the next fring? Not after, but before. Four horsemen, one ending. Welcome back, it's go time baby.

**SPEAKER_3** (2:48)
Let's talk about Warsh. He's a big new factor and it's going to, he's going to play very heavily into what happens next. First meeting is the 16th. He'll give a speech on the 17th. And the CME site is saying that there's only a 3% chance of it's fed cut in rates this June. And that by December of this year, there's a 50% chance that fed funds rate is going to go up. And Warsh has been billed as being somewhat hawkish. And certainly the market is leaning towards he's going to increase rates, for a lot of people, I think, are making that bet. Although the stock market doesn't reflect it. And I think the stock market might be looking through it. And my view is, I'm non-consensus in my views on Warsh. I actually think there's a good chance he's going to cut rates at this meeting. And I think he signaled this because he said, first of all, we got to think about these inflation numbers differently. The PCE number, it's not accurate. We've got to use this new Dallas-trimmed PCE. And PCE through April is printing 3.8, while the Dallas-trimmed is printing 2.3. There's an argument here for cutting rates.

**SPEAKER_2** (3:40)
Let's just check. True inflation in their annual CPI or calculation of the inflation rate is under 2% right now. I'm sure there's a lot of people saying, hey, look, my life is still really expensive here. But by a number of these metrics, the readings aren't as big as the general BLS CPI.

**SPEAKER_3** (3:54)
That's a good data point. And I also think that there's another part of his speech that really gave us a clue. Several times he said he thought that AI was going to really increase productivity. And one way that you can argue for lower rates not being inflationary is if you get a productivity boost. And we've had Bascent say things like the high inflation is not a permanent condition. It almost makes you think he's thinking transitory.

**SPEAKER_2** (4:15)
Can make that argument that, well, this is largely driven by the surge in oil prices from the war and the administration saying the war is going to be over soon, then it should all come down.

**SPEAKER_3** (4:23)
Exactly, and we know that Trump wants some cut. We know that Trump picked him partly on him saying he would cut them. And I think the trade off he might have made there is he said, well, look, we're going to try and shrink the balance sheet. And by the way, I don't think there's any way in hell he can ever do that. I think that's just a blatant lie. We want to shrink the balance sheet, we want the Fed less involved in the economy, but the lower rates lead to growth. And I know they want growth. I just listened to Besant's speech, and it was basically a speech about how we are going to regrow the American economy through industrial policy. A worthwhile thing to do. We've offshored too much, hollowed out our middle class as a result of it. The difficulty with that is you can't do that in a high rate environment. You got to have a lot of grease to get those gears going. And so you've got to cut rates. So non-consensus, I actually think they're going to find a way to cut rates. I actually think there's some possibility, some non-zero possibility that June rolls around and he cuts 50 bits.