**SPEAKER_1** (0:01)
Yo!
**Nico** (0:02)
While Bitcoin has quietly rallied from 57,000 to over 64,000, a number of Wall Street firms are making moves. Standard Charter is still calling for 100K in 2026
Eric Trump's American Bitcoin has accumulated over 8,000 coins and remains bullish. And we also have a $200 billion firm, VanEck, saying some interesting things about Bitcoin. While you watch this clip, ask yourself, why are these Wall Street firms getting more optimistic on Bitcoin at the exact same time that everybody is losing faith? Do they know something we don't?
**Matthew Sigel** (0:40)
What I've been telling clients is that you want to have your full position by October. We respect the four-year cycle, and it's been one element in kind of not buying every dip in Bitcoin this year. And not to say we didn't buy some of these dips. The first time that Bitcoin hit 60K, we noticed some really one-sided positioning in the derivatives market. And then we got the bounce into the low 80s, ran right into the moving averages. And on this retest, there hasn't quite been the same type of capitulation signals in terms of liquidations or the premiums people are paying for puts versus calls. And I think that the market noticed that. And while there was definitely a lot of bearishness, we didn't see that same type of capitulation. That said, puts are still really expensive versus calls by historical standards. We're seeing that like in the 80th percentile. So not quite the 99th like we saw the first time BTC hit 60k, but puts are expensive. Realized losses are in the 90th percentile historically. So people are dumping losses. So there is maybe some hint of sellers exhaustion that may emerge here.
And then we've also seen the older cohorts, kind of two-year plus holders have slowed down their selling. So that's another maybe hint of sellers exhaustion. And I think that's what's kind of leading to this Bitcoin bounce here in the latter half of the week.
But I'm still kind of waiting and watching to get more aggressive. It really depends on your kind of individual positioning and risk reward. What I've been telling clients is that you want to have your full position by October. So putting in some type of time-based buying where you add a few basis points every month or so until we get into Q4, that seems like a reasonable strategy. I can't say I know exactly what's going to happen.
But the fact that the four-year pattern matched up so well, you got to respect it a little bit.
**SPEAKER_4** (3:16)
Well, you look at that.
**Nico** (3:17)
Nico vindicated, baby. I've been telling you guys since October. I've been getting so much heat. I've been telling you guys about the four-year cycle. And then you have someone from VanEck. And again, shout out to Scott Melker of Wolf of All Streets for hosting that interview. Go check out his channel. It's fantastic. But this is what I've been saying. The four-year cycle is the only theory that hasn't broken. And now you're starting to see that go into traditional Wall Street. They're paying attention to it. He's saying, hey, we have to respect this. It hasn't broken yet. And it's interesting, he's mentioning the month October. If the four-year cycle holds, as I've been saying for the last couple of months, and all you guys are beating me up in the chat, if the cycle holds, we topped specifically where we were supposed to top, which was October of 2025 And if it holds, we should be bonning them out October of 2026, which makes me extremely bullish. I've been saying this for the last couple of months, that 2027 is going to be a fantastic year. I'd be very surprised if we weren't back above 100K at the end of 2027 So yeah, man, I mean, it's great to kind of see these videos. It's, you can't ignore it at this point because it's perfectly following that cycle. However, despite all that being said, Wall Street has been accumulating and they still feel very bullish about the future of Bitcoin, specifically this year, Standard Charter keeps 100K Bitcoin target despite strategy pivot. And that could actually come to fruition because if we do bottom in October, and let's say the bottom isn't that bad, let's say we don't have a 70% capitulation, which would put us in the low 40s.
Let's say we bottom out at 50 or 60 If you look at Bitcoin's performance historically from the bottom, when it bottoms out, it rebounds very aggressively. So if we do go into that region of 40 or the 50Ks, we're not going to spend a lot of time there. Maybe a week, maybe two weeks, but it's going to bounce back very aggressively. Now, is it going to bounce back all the way to 100K, from 50K to 100K? I mean, that would literally be a god candle. It would be a 50K candle. That would happen over a couple of months. Could it happen? Potentially. Nobody knows. If they're telling you they know, they're lying. But what we all know is that Bitcoin is going to go up forever because it's infinity divided by 21 million, as long as governments continue to print money and debase their currencies, which we all know they have to.
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