Trump’s Iran “Skinny Deal” Fantasy

**Julia Ioffe** (0:01)
I think Iran didn't know before this war that it had this leverage, that it could take the world by the balls and squeeze, you know?

**Peter Hamby** (0:14)
Welcome to The Powers That Be Daily, Puck's podcast focused on the intersection of Wall Street, Washington, Silicon Valley, and Hollywood and the players who run it all. I'm Peter Hamby.
It's Wednesday, June 3rd. Today, I'm joined by Julia Ioffe, who's here to break down the Groundhog Day vibes swirling around the US war with Iran. Every other day, it seems there's a breach in the ceasefire, a new roadblock in peace talks, and Donald Trump assuring reporters and the American public that the war will be over very soon. But this foreign adventure has now lasted three months despite Trump's promises to end it very soon. And as Julia explains, it's Iran that holds the bargaining chips, not the White House.
We'll discuss all that and much more on today's episode of The Powers That Be.
This episode is brought to you by Universal International Studios, presenting the critically acclaimed series All Her Fault for your Emmy consideration. Sarah Snook stars in the Peacock Original Limited series, where a seemingly perfect family's world is shattered when their young son goes missing. NPR calls the series a gripping thriller with exceptional performances, and Collider praises Dakota Fanning and Sarah Snook, calling them incredibly charismatic on screen together, and both delivering powerful performances. All Her Fault is streaming now only on Peacock. This podcast is brought to you by Landman. As oil rises from the earth, so do the secrets. Billy Bob Thornton, Demi Moore, and Sam Elliott star in the explosive second season of Landman. One of the best TV shows of the year raves the rap. This season is better than ever, says Esquire. From Taylor Sheridan, Landman continues its run as a cultural phenomenon. For your Emmy consideration in all categories. Now streaming on Paramount Plus.
Happy Wednesday, everybody, and welcome to The Powers That Be. I'm joined today by my colleague, Julia Ioffe. It's Groundhog Day every time Julia comes on these days, at least since February, as it relates to Iran. Trump will call reporters and say, the peace talks are going all right. Just you wait, gas prices are going to come down. He told that to CNBC.
He also told CNBC on Monday, after Iran pulled out of talks that are on again, off again, on again, off again, despite what Trump is constantly saying about how the end of the war is just around the corner. He told CNBC, I don't really care, I don't care, we'll see. He also posted on True Social, everyone wait and see, this will all be fine. Look, like I mentioned, Julia, the attack on Iran started in February. We have talked repeatedly about how Donald Trump says every week, maybe he's pumping stock prices or something, that just wait, this will be over in 10 days, this will be over in two weeks. I mean, whatever this is, is also in question because the US and Iran were also shooting at each other over the weekend and on Monday. Is it a war? Is it a stalemate? Is it a ceasefire? Are talks going on? It's a mess. On top of that, and we'll talk a little bit more about this, Israel keeps pushing further and further into Lebanon to fight Hezbollah. Iran doesn't like that. So it just feels like there is no end in sight. What's your take?

**Julia Ioffe** (3:42)
Well, as I wrote last week in a piece, our editors brilliantly called Schrodinger's War, you know, it's like where we have a ceasefire, but they're still shooting, but the ceasefire is still holding. So we're not at war, but we're not not at war because a ceasefire is just a temporary patch and there's no bigger deal. And a bigger deal, there's going to be an Iran deal any minute now, any day now, but Trump also doesn't care, but it's also happening tomorrow.
And we don't know if it's going to be a kind of a smaller scope deal to just reopen the Strait of Hormuz and let through a quarter of the world's oil supplies and energy supplies, or is it going to be a larger, more comprehensive deal, which is basically the JCPOA 2 with a lot more damage behind it. And it's kind of like, is it a particle or a wave? Yes, it's both at the same time. It's a war and it's not a war.

**Peter Hamby** (4:49)
Yeah, it's hard to understand. I also don't know how to cease fire if you're still shooting at each other, but whatever. When Israel had a ceasefire with Gaza, they kept going in and breaking the ceasefire and they would restart combat operations. So who knows?