Time to Be Cautious on Stocks? 9/2/26

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**Scott Wapner** (1:00)
I'm Scott Wapner and you're listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast, the most profitable hour of the trading day. We record this live weekdays at 12 Eastern. Listen in.
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**Scott Wapner** (1:16)
Welcome to the Halftime Report. I'm Scott Wapner, front and center. This is our The Outlook for Stocks. Bond yields easing a little bit today. Still though, the narrative around the markets feels like it's growing more cautious. We'll discuss and debate that with the committee. Joining me for the hour today, Joe Terranova, Liz Thomas, Jim Lebenthal, Steve Weiss. Let's check the markets. I'll show you exactly what I'm talking about. We do have a decent day.
I think people needed that after what we've been thinking about over the last couple of days. More cautious commentary, no doubt. Bond yields backing up, in some cases surging. We get a little bit of relief. The 10-year briefly did hit its highest level since November of 23 Piper today says bull market is still intact. Leadership has shifted. They're obviously referring to what's happened to the tech trade over the last several weeks. Jonathan Krinsky, BTIG, he's the technician over there, says he continues to see downside risk. So he's talking about a potential retracement to 7200 to 7300 We'll see. I mean, look, there's a lot of good stuff still happening in this market.
And Joe, I guess we'll start there because it feels like we're in a tug of war between a narrative that has suddenly shifted more cautious and an environment that still honestly feels pretty good. And how couldn't it, if earnings are where they are, despite everything else going on.

**Joe Terranova** (2:34)
All right, so the perspective that I'm maintaining as we move into this month, and I will absolutely acknowledge that there are clearly more headwinds, specifically, as you mentioned, oil and rising yields. That is in front of us. But I want to pick up on the word cautious.
The way I think you have to approach this month is to be selective. And here's the difference. Selective means you don't have a view on where the overall index is going, but you acknowledge that, foundationally, we are in a bull market. You're also understanding that some valuations are stretched, and you're trying to identify tactical opportunities in front of you. I think that's the right way to play it. I think when you say you're cautious, I think that leans you to very quickly become bearish. And as I referenced yesterday, what I'm seeing building, what I'm seeing building is as it relates to the momentum factor, I think we're pretty washed out. I think we're washed out. I think a lot of the notes that I'm reading lately are suggesting, due to the momentum factors, significant underperformance in Q3, that leads you to extrapolate, okay, you need to be bearish in the month of September. I don't believe you play that game. Don't get too bearish, don't get too bullish. Be selective, identify opportunities as we have been doing. And you're right, a lot of those opportunities, they are outside technology.

**Scott Wapner** (3:50)
I don't think that it has to be, because you're cautious, you're all of a sudden bearish. And I would frankly use what I think is the perfect counter to that, from what we mentioned yesterday, from Citadel Securities and Scott Wapner, who says, yes, the risk reward has changed, would use some strength to reduce exposure, but then says, this is a reset. It's not a change fundamentally to the trend or fundamentally to the story. That's simply identifying, it feels like it's time to be a little more cautious. We're in a historically awful month for stocks. There's a lot going on, yields have backed up, oils up. I'm not talking about by the second today, obviously, but you get where I'm going with that. That doesn't mean you need to get bearish and all of a sudden change your overall position on the markets. I think that pretty much lays that out.