Thursday's Final Takeaways: NFL Rights, Trump/Warsh Phone Calls

**Marley Kayden** (0:01)
Welcome back to Market On Close. I'm Marley Kayden here in Chicago, alongside Sam Vadas at the New York Stock Exchange. Here's some final thoughts on this session today. Gold climbing as investors balance to competing forces ahead of Friday's jobs report. A potentially softer US labor market that could ease pressure on the Fed, and evolving negotiations over the straight-up Hormuz that are driving swings in oil prices. Progress toward a Hormuz agreement has helped cool the crude prices, reducing inflation concerns, while weaker economic data has boosted demand for gold as a traditional safe haven asset. Gold hovering near two-month highs today is all eyes are on tomorrow's payrolls report, which could reshape expectations for Fed policy, and also determine whether gold extends its recent rally, or if it gives back some of its gains. This next story really caught my eye. It's in the media space. FOXA saying it won't renegotiate its NFL media rights agreement before 2030, pushing back on the league's effort to renegotiate existing contracts early, and potentially secure significantly higher rights fees. The decision is an interesting move for FOXA, considering just how valuable live sports have become, and the NFL remains the most coveted programming in television and streaming, with traditional broadcasters and tech giants alike competing for this premium live content that reliably attracts massive audiences and advertising dollars. FOXA says it believes the current deal already reflects fair market value, even as the league continues expanding partnerships with streaming platforms like Amazon and Netflix. The standoff highlights the growing tension between media companies that are trying to control soaring sports rights costs and the leagues, which are trying to then capitalize on this unprecedented demand for live sports. The NFL reportedly discussed an increase of nearly a billion dollars per year in rights costs in early talks with Paramount to continue carrying its games on its CBS channels through 2034 Sam, I love that story. We talk all about sports and how that's the next driver of streaming, but what caught your eye today?

**Sam Vadas** (1:51)
I thought this Wall Street Journal report was really interesting today. President Trump has spoken to Kevin Warsh repeatedly since he took the Fed chair job. Apparently, Trump calls him in bursts several times in a stretch of days, then goes quiet. The report says it's not clear if they've talked about monetary policy, but Trump has been getting Warsh's thoughts on things like how the war in Iran and AI are impacting the economy. I spoke to Mike Townsend about this, who said it's not surprising that Warsh is on Trump's speed dial and has a chummy relationship, but he says the big question moving forward is if the Fed has to hike rates later this year, whether that changes the tone of the relationship, given how we know Trump feels about wanting to lower those rates. Now, one of the factors allowing the Fed to stay on hold for now, of course, is that stable jobs market. Initial jobless claims out this morning, showing a slight weekly rise of 1,000 to 199,000. That was lower than estimates and continues to point to a low-hire, low-fire environment. Adding to the stable job picture, Challenger Gray in Christmas showed US employers laid off fewer people in July compared to June. And I think that's a really nice prelude into, obviously, that jobs report that you're obviously going to be looking at tomorrow, Marley.

**Marley Kayden** (2:58)
That is my key focus, the jobs report. Economists expecting the US economy to add about 83,000 jobs in July. That would be a rebound from June's modest gain of 57,000. The employment rate forecast to hold steady right at about 4.2 percent. Now, part of the boost in job availability is expected to be related to the World Cup, but this of course would be the last time the economy receives a bump from the soccer tournament, which ended last month. How about you, Sam? What are you watching for?

**Sam Vadas** (3:23)
We've got some numbers out of China tonight. This is the export and import numbers. Obviously, second world's biggest economy, and this is really important because exports have been a huge bright spot. It's basically been the last leg that China has been left standing on. Exports out of Asia as a whole, places like Taiwan, South Korea, Japan have been holding up exceptionally well. A lot of this is, of course, technology imports of which are a key gauge of domestic demand holding up quite well as well. But I'm also watching those exports from China here to the US because they've actually been picking up after pulling back for many, many months. And that seems to have something to do with frontloading ahead of tariffs, but also, of course, all the technology that the US is looking to get its hands on as well. So that's going to be interesting, particularly as the UN. I noticed this week has been trading at a three-and-a-half year high against the greenback Marley.