Topics: News Commentary, News
**Nico Moran** (0:00)
The global economy is on the verge of collapse. The bond markets are shaking. The dollar has plunged. And the US. Treasury is doubling its liquidity support. Translation, the US government is now buying back its own long bonds in massive size because someone has to. What does all this mean? Well, according to one analyst, the yen carry trade coming apart is the beginnings of a Godzilla margin call. And right alongside it, on the geopolitical side, because what happens in the world is reflected in markets, is a guy who nailed the 2008 financial crisis. He says the cascading effects of the Iran War and the Strait of Hormuz are taking us into the Trump Depression. Both analysts agree, we're looking at 1929 or worse. And amidst the chaos, Bitcoin has stayed resilient. It even started to move when the bond markets were rattling. And that is telling us something. Hold on, are they planning to retire US treasuries and take them out of circulation? And if so, what does all of it mean for Bitcoin? Because gold has been dominating. Stay with us until the finish. You're going to learn why the biggest winner from all this, the fastest horse in the race, will be Bitcoin. The Trump Depression, the Godzilla margin call, the Dollar's Demise, and Million Dollar Bitcoin are all on the agenda. That's right. Strap the hell in. Send it!
Now, before we get to the bond market's rattling and the Godzilla margin call, we have to start with what's actually bringing the whole house of fiat cards down. And if you're new, don't forget to smash the like, hit subscribe. It helps us get the word out. And that way, you get the best in Bitcoin news delivered to you daily for free. It's a win-win. Now, to tell our story, we go to Professor Steve Keen. This is the economist who saw the 2008 financial crisis coming years in advance. Not guessed, modeled it. He's the private debt guy. While every bald talking head on CNBC was popping champagne and calling subprime contained alleged, quote, by the way, Keen was starting at one number, private debt to GDP. And that number was screaming. Here's the thing, right? Mainstream economics doesn't even put banks and debt in their models. That's like trying to fly a plane while pretending gravity doesn't exist. Keen built his whole career on the idea that debt is the entire ball game. And when private debt tops out, when people stop borrowing, the credit engine stalls and the whole thing rolls downhill. That was the 2008 playbook. And now he says we're doing it again.
Bigger, except this time it's got a name. The Trump Depression. And before you yell at me, this isn't partisan. I don't care whose name is on it. His point is that the credit swing is so violent and the private debt so bloated that what's coming is a depression scale event. Not a recession, a depression. 1929, or worse.
**Steve Keen** (3:15)
We are in really, really dangerous waters. And what scares me the most is we will see global famines occurring and where famine occurs, if it's widespread enough, you also get social breakdown. So we're in a very, very dangerous point for the global economy. Now, with the obsession that conventional economists and politicians have with efficiency means we've gone across to a production system in the West, which relies upon so supplies arriving just in time for the manufacturing process that they're part of. The same with fertilizer. Fertilizer arrives just in time for when it needs to be used to enhance the growing season. But just in time has been smashed by a month. There's a month missing in the flow of goods and services. We've also got a decline in productivity as well, from the collateral damage to production facilities. As a consequence of the war, we don't have time and we don't have resources. And that's going to really hit us very badly this year. This total supply of fertilizer for the world is going to drop by about 20% courtesy of this crisis.
Now whether that affects countries depends upon their own stocks of fertilizer. So obviously China is quite safe. So if we then had people saying, well, China is going to send fertilizer to India to give India the capacity to produce food and to Australia and to Britain and so on, then we could sell through the crisis. But that means we're going to rely upon cooperation from politicians. And of course, what we've seen is anything but cooperation being the rule. People hang on to things for themselves. So this is probably going to lead into increasing the breakdown we're seeing in global trade coming out of this because people don't trust each other. Countries aren't willing to sacrifice their potential survival for the survival of another country. So we're going to see serious deaths coming out of this absence of fertilizer in particular. And it's going to happen this year.
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