PDB Afternoon Bulletin | August 28th, 2026: Iran Is Losing Control of the Strait of Hormuz & Laser Warfare Comes to the U.S.-Mexico Border

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**Mike Baker** (0:41)
It's Friday, the 28th of August. Oh, look at that. The last Friday in August. Welcome to the PDB Afternoon Bulletin. I'm Mike Baker. Your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. First up, President Trump says the battle for the Strait of Hormuz is essentially over, declaring, quote, That sucker is open.
While there's growing evidence the traffic through the waterway is increasing slowly, you may not be surprised to know that the reality on the ground is a bit more complicated. I'll have the details later in the show. The US military takes another step into the future using a high energy laser laser beam to destroy three cartel-linked drones along the southern border with Mexico. But first, today's afternoon spotlight.
President Trump says Iran has lost its most powerful bargaining chip in the war, and in typical Trump fashion, he's not being particularly subtle about it. Speaking to Axios on Thursday, the president declared that the battle for the Strait of Hormuz has effectively been won. Trump bluntly said, quote, That sucker is open. The Iranian response, he said, is very mild. They don't want us to go back at them. That's the whole ballgame. The rest doesn't matter. End quote. Well, I guess all that's left is for President Trump to rename the Strait of Hormuz.
As we reported Wednesday, Trump announced that the US military had cleared Iranian mines from the internationally recognized shipping lane running through the Strait. On Thursday night, CENTCOM Commander Admiral Brad Cooper publicly confirmed that the operation was complete. Cooper said US forces successfully cleared Iranian mines from the traffic separation scheme, as he established inbound and outbound shipping corridor running between Iran and Oman, calling it a, quote, major milestone in the six-month war and declaring that, quote, momentum is building in the Strait. According to Cooper, Navy divers, SEALs, drones and US air power spent months quietly clearing the lanes under dangerous conditions. But, notably, the Iranian mine threat appears to have been far less expansive and sophisticated than previously believed. American forces reportedly swept more than 200 objects initially suspected of being mines. But, according to US officials who spoke to Axios, only 11 of them turned out to be actual mines, and just a few of those had been properly deployed. So while Iran clearly did mine the international shipping corridor, the physical minefield itself appears to have been considerably smaller than early estimates. And mines are only part of what's changed in the strait. American officials say a two-week bombing campaign substantially degraded the Revolutionary Guard's ability to attack commercial shipping. The US and the United Arab Emirates, the UAE, have also been escorting vessels through a separate southern route under American air protection, while Washington maintains its tight blockade on Iranian ports. The result, according to the US administration, is that Iran has lost much of its control over the waterway, while the US now effectively controls, they say, most of it. CENTCOM says American forces have helped nearly 1,500 commercial vessels transit the strait over the course of the month's long operation, carrying roughly 750 million barrels of crude oil to global markets. Now, 750 million barrels, I'm no math genius, but the average oil supertanker carries, I believe, about 2 million barrels, so we're talking about 375 tankers or so. Before the war, more than 20 million barrels passed through Hormuz every day, and despite the recent improvement, current traffic remains far below anything resembling normal. US officials speaking to Axios claim that between 20 and 30 tankers are now moving through the southern channel each night, carrying roughly 9 to 10 million barrels of oil, or about half the pre-war volume.
But independent tanker trackers are skeptical that the numbers are that high, although US officials argue that they're under-counting. According to preliminary data from Kapler, a maritime and energy intelligence provider, only 7 commodity vessels crossed Hormuz on Thursday, compared with the recent 10-day average of 15
Before the war, total daily ship traffic through the Strait was well into the triple digits.
And the insurance industry certainly isn't acting as though that sucker is open or that the danger has passed. Ship owners, charters and insurers continue to treat the Strait of Hormuz as a high-risk transit. War risk insurance remains extremely expensive, and some insurers have reduced the amount of coverage that they're willing to provide, given Iran's continued attacks on ships, even if the attacks have become less frequent. US officials say that the regime's ability to accurately target vessels has been badly degraded, with only about 2% of ships transiting the Strait over the past month actually being hit. Still, that's enough to keep the industry spooked. For example, a Greek-linked tanker was struck by a projectile in the Omani corridor this week, and maritime intelligence analysts say at least three tankers have recently been turned around rather than complete their transit. So despite Trump's declaration of victory, the picture remains, well, more complicated. Washington has significantly weakened Iran's grip on Hormuz, the principal shipping lanes aren't reportedly mine-free, Tehran's ability to attack vessels has been degraded, and more oil is moving through the strait. But traffic remains severely depressed, ships are still being attacked, and the private insurance market continues treating the strait like a war zone.