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**Mike Baker** (0:42)
It's Thursday, the 27th of August. Welcome to the PDB Afternoon Bulletin. I'm Mike Baker. Your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. First up, Kremlin insiders say that Vladimir Putin is preparing to escalate the war in Ukraine as concern grows that Moscow could turn to the possibility of a tactical nuclear strike.
I'll have the details. Later in the show, a deadly car explosion kills a Russian military officer far from the front lines, the latest in a series of assassinations of Putin's senior officers. But first, today's afternoon bulletin. A new report says Vladimir Putin is preparing to escalate the war in Ukraine and that a growing number of Russian officials believe the conflict could eventually lead Putin to use a tactical nuclear weapon. That's the headline from Bloomberg, which cites multiple sources close to the Kremlin. But there is an important qualification. Bloomberg also reports that there are no signs that Russia is currently preparing to use a nuclear weapon. There is no reported movement of warheads, no indication that Putin has made such a decision, and no evidence that a nuclear strike is imminent.
What the reporting does show is that the nuclear option is being discussed reportedly more openly inside Moscow, as Russian officials conclude that diplomacy has failed and the war is entering a more dangerous phase. According to Bloomberg, the Kremlin is considering a major expansion of conventional strikes against Ukraine. That could include heavier ballistic missile attacks on Kiev, including the city center, as well as intensified attacks on infrastructure across other Ukrainian cities.
One source said the current level of fighting does not represent the peak of Russia's escalation. The thinking inside the Kremlin is reportedly that every mechanism for peace talks has collapsed. Well, that might be because Putin doesn't want peace unless it's exactly on his terms. Now, despite Putin not backing off his long-held maximalist demands, Moscow believes, or they've led themselves to believe, that they've already made concessions, and that each one weakened its position without producing an acceptable settlement. That's a nice narrative on the part of the Kremlin. Russian officials reportedly hold little hope that President Trump's envoys, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, will return with a proposal capable of restarting serious negotiations.
Putin also appears determined not to end the war under pressure from Western sanctions or Ukraine's escalating attacks against Russian oil refineries or logistics hubs or other economic targets.
In fact, the Kremlin increasingly portrays those Ukrainian strikes as attacks carried out by NATO itself because Western governments provide Kiev with weapons and intelligence and targeting assistance. Putin recently accused Ukraine of opening what he called a Pandora's box by striking economic targets and promised retaliation against Ukraine's most sensitive industries. It's almost like Vladimir Putin forgot that he started this whole mess with his invasion several years ago.
And we're now learning more about just how seriously Washington is taking that danger. Earlier this week, we reported that CIA Director John Ratcliffe had made a rare previously unannounced trip to Moscow. The Wall Street Journal now reports that Ratcliffe's central message was, in a sense, a warning that Russia must not attack NATO. According to people briefed on the visit, the warning followed new US intelligence indicating that Putin could test the alliance with a limited cyberattack or military incursion against one of NATO's Baltic members within the next several years. Ratcliffe reportedly met with Sergei Naryshkin, the head of Russia's foreign intelligence service. Moscow has confirmed the meeting, but not what was discussed.
Now, that does not mean that Washington believes a Russian attack on NATO is imminent, but it suggests that the administration sees a serious enough risk to deliver the message directly through the CIA director.
Put all of that together, and Moscow's near-term escalation ladder still appears heavily conventional. More ballistic missiles, larger attacks against Ukrainian cities and infrastructure, potentially more troops, and increasingly direct pressure against the NATO government supporting Kiev. And that does fit a broader pattern that we've been tracking here on the PDB.
Back in July, Reuters reported that Putin was likely to escalate despite the Trump administration's efforts to negotiate peace. One Kremlin-connected source described the chances of escalation in the coming months as high.
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