Nancy Guthrie's 'Porch Guy' — How Close the FBI Really Is, Per One Agent

**Tony Brueski** (0:01)
This is Hidden Killers Live with Tony Brueski and Robin Drake.

**Tony Brueski** (0:08)
Let's flip this completely. In the same way the week their stuck stuff came out, retired FBI agent Maureen O'Connell goes on Megyn Kelly's show and says her sources say they're closing in on Porch Guy, the masked man on Nancy's doorbell camera, and she put a 75% assuredness. It's her own conjecture. Everybody is certainly entitled to their own conjecture, but that's what she said according to her sources. And then her conjecture said she feels it's about 75% that that is accurate when pressed by Megyn.
Soon as they ID him, she says, the floodgates open. So you got two former FBI agents, same case, same week, telling you opposite things. We have two FBI agents, same case, same week. And let's see if we're going to hear opposite things. Here, Jennifer Coffindaffer, retired FBI special agent, and Robin Drake, retired FBI special agent, chief of the Counterintelligence Behavioral Analysis Program, to help us break it down. All right, confident at 75%. You're both retired FBI special agents. She says she has some sources in there, telling her that they're getting this close. What are the odds that that's accurate?

**Jennifer Coffindaffer** (1:15)
A couple of things. I could not, and I listened to it, I couldn't understand what's at 75%.
Is it 75% that they're getting, closer to making an arrest?

**Tony Brueski** (1:28)
I think her confidence level, that they're 70, that they're going down a path, that they're closing in on Porch Guy. She's about 75% sure, if I'm understanding her conjecture correctly, that they're getting close to closing in on Porch Guy.

**Jennifer Coffindaffer** (1:43)
So her assurity is 75%, not the... Okay.

**Tony Brueski** (1:50)
I don't think that's from the FBI, that's her own interpretation of her source.

**Jennifer Coffindaffer** (1:55)
I'm just going to be honest and I have nothing against this woman. I don't know anything about her, except former FBI came in and around my similar time frame. I was confused with that 75%, so that bothered me. Then secondarily to that, and again, this is again, with all due respect to her, I don't understand any FBI agent. I understand media because that's their job to find sources. I don't understand any FBI agent or any law enforcement person, retired or not retired, coming in and talking about sources. We all have sources. We all have people telling us things.
Just as my personal mantra, I'm not going to talk about what somebody says about a case. Never. I keep it tight.
I was just surprised. That's all I'm going to say. I was surprised. I was confused and it doesn't match up with the other reporting, but that doesn't mean it's not accurate. I was just confused and I was really surprised.

**Robin Drake** (3:07)
I'm so glad you said that, Jen, because first of all, I only put averages of percentages when I do research off of past cases. Every time I say probabilities, it's always based on past research, not on conjecture or theories or anything else right now.
I'm so glad you also said that, Jen, because here I am sitting, I'm retired FBI, this person's got sources. What am I doing wrong in my post-bureau career that I don't have sources that can tell me this shit because I got no idea who would have told me this stuff. Because like you said, no one talks like that. Here's the other thing too, you don't put your former colleagues, friends, and associates in that kind of compromising position to do that. It's really, really bad because we do internal leak investigations all the time, all the time. I was in units that did that and the last thing in the world you want to do because a bureau takes that extremely seriously. If you're ever caught giving information about an investigation to someone outside, I don't care if you retire or not, you are screwing yourself pretty significantly. So first of all, to have someone willing to do that is one thing. And to be the type of person to ask for that information is another thing. So I'm in the world, I may be on that one because I don't know where she came up with that number either.

**Tony Brueski** (4:26)
I don't know. I mean, I get making a good headline.
But at the end of the day, people are interpreting these things. And I don't want to lead people down a wrong path or something. And I don't know Maureen either, so I'm in no way trying to say anything negative about her. I mean, it's a conjecture sometimes. I think when you're live, maybe comes across as fact or people absorb something as fact because it comes from someone with a history or a title, and then boom, oh, it must be true. Or people misinterpret it as something that it's not. I don't know. Maybe that's what's going on there.