Monday's Final Takeaways: SPCX Back Above IPO Price & Rare Earths Rally

**Marley Kayden** (0:02)
Welcome back to Market Unclosed. I'm Marley Kayden here in Chicago, alongside Sam Vadas at the New York Stock Exchange. Here's some final thoughts on this session. Today, of course, we've both been talking about them throughout the day. Oil prices back in focus, with Brent crude and WTI moving higher, as investors continue to watch tensions around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz. At the same time, the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve has fallen below 300 million barrels for the first time since 1983, dropping 6.1 million barrels last week to roughly 298.7 million. Washington now has a much smaller emergency cushion at a time when disruptions to global oil supplies remain a major risk. For investors, the debate remains whether geopolitical risk keeps a premium in crude prices or if a sustained reopening of the Strait ultimately brings more supply back into the market and puts downward pressure on oil. Today, we saw WTI and Brent rise more than 5% each.
Also, interesting action in SpaceX today. They rebounded to get back above the IPO price for the first time in weeks. They seesaw throughout the session as they tried to recover from volatile post IPO trading that has seen the stock close as low as 108.27 just days ago. Today, we saw SpaceX close at 138.74.
That was up more than 4%. They did post better than expected sales last week, leading to an upward revision forecast from Citi over the weekend. Analysts reiterated their buy rating and increased their 26 and 27 forecast as a result of rolling forward sources of that second quarter 26 beat. Those were two things that stuck out to me, Sam, but what caught your eye during the session?

**Sam Vadas** (1:39)
A couple of other bright spots in this market today are Chinese ADRs rallying ahead of a busy week for earnings from Tencent, BYD and JD. Just to name a few, followed a strong session for local shares as well after inflation in the country cooled last month. The good news is wholesale inflation eased for the first time since the Iran War started. More evidence the energy supply shock is moderating that should feed in perhaps to what we get here in the US this week. But sticker prices grew at the slowest pace in six months, pointing to persistent weak spending in the Chinese economy. This continued deflationary pressure is fuelling market expectations that China may roll out more stimulus to help domestic demand. So a bit of bad news, good news for the markets. A number of Rare Earths stocks also rallied today after more backing from the US government. Shares in 5.3 advanced materials jumped over 30% at one stage after getting an $8 million investment. President Trump has also announced more than $2 billion in investments to support domestic critical mineral production. MP Materials rallied more than 6% today. And Australia's Sunrise Energy Metals, a small firm, rallied almost 30% on the ASX overnight after securing a $400 million investment in debt financing from the US. The money is aimed at backing the development of a mine for the highly strategic Rare Earths element, Scandium, and to take on China's hegemony in the space. But heading into tomorrow, Marley, what are you going to be looking out for?

**Marley Kayden** (3:03)
Supermicro's earnings tomorrow after the closing bell. The set up here is a fascinating one. Wall Street is expecting EPS of about 96 cents on revenue of 11.56 billion for the quarter. But the interesting part is the company already said its quarterly revenue should come in near the low end of its range, but its margins could be nearly two times better than its previously guided range, coming in between 15 and 17% on both gap and adjusted basis. So the real question then becomes, can investors look past slower sales if we get stronger margins showing the Supermicro can turn its massive AI backlog into better profits and cash generation? We will see, Sam, but what will you be watching?

**Sam Vadas** (3:41)
I think CoreWeave earnings are gonna be interesting because investors are focused on the backlog, capex and margins. Obviously, we've got some data out as well, existing home sales, but there seems to be a feeling that we could see stocks, Marley, remaining in this holding pattern as markets await for an update very much on that inflation print on Wednesday.

**Marley Kayden** (4:01)
Yes, it seems like everyone's just holding their breath a little until that report on Wednesday, but that is going to do it for us today on Market On Close. For Sam Vadas, I'm Marley Kayden. We really appreciate you being with us today. You can download our Schwab Network app in the Apple App Store and you can tune in 24-7 on schwabnetwork.com. We hope you have a great rest of your Monday.