Milton Berg: I Have Evidence Market Has Likely Bottomed | Why Milton’s Long Semis, Korea, Nasdaq, and More (With Caveats), and Why He Thinks Gold has made a Multi-year Top

**Jack Farley** (0:00)
I am joined once again by Milton Berg of MB Advisors and Milton Berg Edge. Milton is one of the greatest market technicians alive, and he focuses on a lot of things that most technical analysts don't follow. So he's mostly not looking at charts, he's looking at data, he's looking at turning points. Milton, it's great to see you again. Welcome back to Monetary Matters.

**Milton Berg** (0:21)
Thank you, Jack, nice to be back. We had a nice meeting last time, February 5th, right after gold peaked, and now we have a good meeting because it looks like stocks may have bottomed, at least the semiconductors and the concept may have bottomed after really sharp declines. Let's see.

**Jack Farley** (0:35)
Yep, you had a great call when you identified the top in gold and silver. I believe you actually sold your personal precious metals the day before the high.

**Milton Berg** (0:44)
Actually, the day of the high.

**Jack Farley** (0:45)
Day of the high, day of the high. So Milton, I know you got a lot of buy signals in early April. We will get into that over 30 buy signals with median projections of between 8,000 and over 10,000 on the S&P. We will get into that in a moment, Milton. But first, where do you think stand right now?
Tell us about the panic low you saw in July 29th, the potential bull readings you see right now, potential readings you see now, and to what degree your confidence and why in your various portfolios and model portfolios you are positioned the way you are. So what's your positioning right now and why?

**Milton Berg** (1:17)
Okay. Well, currently, we're positioned 100 percent long. This is our positioning.
EWY is a COSP index. We're positioned 5 percent long COSP.

**Jack Farley** (1:26)
Korea.

**Milton Berg** (1:27)
Korea, right. We're positioned nearly 10 percent long the Russell 2000, 5 percent long the S&P MidCaps, 10 percent long the Nasdaq 100, 20 percent long the Sox, and nearly 50 percent long the S&P 500 through the SPY. On point D, we just positioned long on July 29th and 30th because we were short until then. So we actually covered our short the day of the low, the day after the low, and went long. So that's really our position currently. It's really diversified. Mainly in the Sox is the index that lost some over 20 percent. We'll get to that in a minute. And the Cospi, of course, is down nearly 40 percent. So we really got into the losers thinking that they were way oversold. They were some panic selling. They should at least have a short-term bounce, if not more. Anyway, that was our position. But basically, we're bullish the market now, we're long the market with some caveats, which are very, very important caveats.
I can start with the SP500, if you'd like.
The SP500 basically peaked in late May. It made a minor new high in June on a closing basis. But it collapsed about down 40% to the June 9th, just a couple of days after its peak. It never made a lower low. The low in July 29th was a positive divergence against the low in June 9th.
July 29th low was above the low in June. So that's what's called a positive divergence. In the market, although people are panicking and selling out of the semiconductor stocks, the Nasdaq 100 was making new lows and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was making new lows.
But the SAP did not make a new low, which is a positive divergence, which a technician would say, that's just a sign that the market should be headed higher. That's one positive sign.
I use it to determine Montgomery date. Every time I mention cycle dates, people comment on your site, oh, what's he talking about? I shut this off as soon as I heard about cycle dates. I want to point out that we have some of the most sophisticated money managers in the world as clients, and they're very, very happy that we talk about cycle dates, because cycle dates is something that other people don't look at. People talk about seasonality. Seasonality is also something which really doesn't make any rational sense. But the cycle dates often work very, very well in pinpointing market turning points. Earlier in the year, if I can show you here, we listed our cycle dates. You can see we had a cycle date on January 30th. It was the day the gold collapsed, you see. We had a cycle date right here on July 29th, July 29th, 2026 cycle date. That was the center of the date. The point is that cycle dates help us out in pinpointing turning points. The reality is that the S&P bottom on July 29th made a nice spike low, turned right up, made a new high on a closing basis on Friday, and today it's down a bit. But basically, the market was bullish off the July 29th low and we're long. Looking at the technical analysis over here, I point out that there's another cycle period right now. You see, this square here, or this half square is to tell you that the next four days, it's possible to see another turning point where the market might peak. Now, what's the logical reason? Why would there be a turning point if the market just bottomed? The reason is because maybe the market is making a broad top here. The reality is although the S&P had a new high on Friday's close, you look at other indices like the Nasdaq 100, Nasdaq 100 is below its low of early in the year, below its low of June 2nd. Nasdaq at its high, it's 3.02% below its high. It's currently 3.02% below the high it made on June 2nd. You take another index like the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index as well, and that at Friday's close was 15.57% below its peak on June 22nd. The point I'm trying to make is although we were bullish on the market, and although we are thinking the market rally, it's possible you got to always saw in July was a short-term low with a sharp, sharp rally. You had the five-day rate of change was the greatest in over a year, and two of the major indices. So you saw a very sharp rally lasting about maybe six, seven days. But it's possible it's just a leg up with negative divergences. Negative divergences meaning you have the piece making a new high, the Russell made a new high, but many other broad indices are not making new highs. And it's possibly we'll go back down to test the lows. Now, one historical example. Now you realize we had a serious decline in two major indexes. We had a serious decline in the COSPI.