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**Jim Cramer** (1:17)
Hey, I'm Cramer. Welcome to Mad Money. Welcome to Cray America. All the people I make friends, I'm just trying to save you some money. My job is not just entertaining, but to teach. So call me at 1-800-743-CBC. Tweet me at Jim Cramer.
Things have changed for the worse.
There's a shroud now over this market, and you ignore it at your own peril. Even on a good day like this one where the Dow dropped 81 points, but the S&P gained 0.3 percent, and the NASDAQ climbed 0.86 percent. This didn't come back from Friday's tsunami of selling.
**SPEAKER_5** (1:49)
Sell, sell, sell, sell, sell, sell, sell.
**Jim Cramer** (1:51)
Really not an overwhelming one.
So what's changed that has me turn much more cautious? Well, first, the stronger than expected employment report on Friday was awful for the bulls.
Because the bulls desperately need one or two rate cuts this year to keep this market going higher. And you don't get rate cuts when the labor market's this solid.
I always tell you that the non-farm payroll report is the single most important piece of data we get from the government. And that's because it has an impact on the Federal Reserve. On Friday, we got a surprisingly strong employment figure, certainly stronger than I was looking for. So strong that I think you could argue that we might actually need a rate hike to cool the economy, not a rate cut to turn the temperature up.
Now, I am a huge believer in the late Marty Weig's notion that you can't fight the Fed. When the Fed is raising rates as I think they may have to, and you happen to be bullish, well, you're going to get steamboat.
That's where we are now. When the Fed's cutting rates, that's your green light to buy. That's where we were before last Friday. Simple idea, but it's made me a lot of money over the years. So if rate cuts are now off the table, well, you have to get less bullish. Axiomatic people, axiomatic. Part of my enthusiasm for this market came from the fact that Kevin Marsh, the new Fed chief, clearly wants to cut rates. I love J-Pal, responsible, smart, always doing his best and extremely trying circumstances. But I'm not going to complain when we got a replacement wants to juice the economy since the stock price up.
Lots of people are all excited about the stock market and their home prices going up too. But let's not forget, please, there's a huge percentage of people who know nothing about owning stocks or homes and are struggling to make ends meet. Many were hurting from inflation, including tariff hangover price increases, as well as less health care cost protection. And a gratuitous cut back in food stamps. The boost in oil prices, though, was the straw that broke the underclasses back. It's too much to ask for them to bear these changes. I thought that a rate cut could be the beginning of a concerted effort to help these people. We know that when management at Walmart, Dollar General, Dollar Tree, and Five Below all talked about the stretched consumer, then them's the facts, right? I mean, you can't dispute them.
But there's also no disputing the labor report, which showed the jobs are incredibly easy to get. And with all the inflation in the system, a rate cut is just not tenable. My biggest bullish prop is gone, at least for now.
It's just gone.
Second, we have this gigantic IPO coming from Elon Musk SpaceX, and it's reportedly oversubscribed. Meaning it's unlikely to bomb. But what happens if it opens way too high? Someone goes, there's not enough stock to go around, and then we watch the sickening decline after that moment. Now, this is a scenario that could very well happen. We keep hearing about how the stock is well placed, right? Big chunk of it is with retail. But what if there are a host of market orders that come in over the transom, and there's no stock to match the buyers? Well, that could quickly send the stock of SpaceX to ridiculously high levels, and that could be very bad. It would color things very negatively maybe for some time. I don't think today's rally nullifies the possibility. It's something that could be very tough to watch. If that happens, there'll be a lot of negative press about the deal, and it would spoil the bullish plot, or at least what's left of it. Third change, that pulled back in the stock of Apple today. Of the big cap stocks, Apple had been the cleanest story. It didn't have to spend big on artificial intelligence. They had Alphabet to do it for them, and they're being paid for doing so because they have such an outstanding and deserved user base. When you have 2.5 billion device out there, there's a much sought after audience, right? And the scrum that is perplexity, like Claude, Gemini, Grok, ChatDB, met.ai, you can cement your relevancy by making a deal with Apple, and that's why Google paid them to be their search function. We don't know the terms of the AI deal, but I think that Apple did fabulously and the whole package now includes Gemini as Siri. I think the idea that Apple's, and when I say as Siri, what I mean is that Siri's gotten much smarter. How about that? Apple is now, is it done? And there are no more improvements? That's what I kept hearing today, it's done. Well, that's just plain stupid. It's gonna get better and better. No one's gonna switch from this phone because they were disappointed by today's Worldwide Developers' Conference, except for the hedge fund guys and gals who watch this show, our network, and said, oh, it's really bad. I mean, it wasn't even a tradable event, although people tried to trade it. And the traders are the losers, not Apple. That said, Apple's a leader, maybe the leader, and I don't want to lose the leader of this stock market. We've lost all the other mega cap stocks now. Forgive me for wanting one of them to keep winning, because I do think Apple could have gone higher on the same info we got today. I wanted it to open down and then rally.
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