Larry Lepard Reveals What NEEDS To Happen Next) | IRL

**Larry Lepard** (0:00)
Let's not forget that when it does go up, it tends to go up multiple, so I completely look forward to seeing 180 to 200,000 Bitcoin. I will see that. We're being gaslit by the Fed. They're just lying to us 24-7. It's all a complete Kabuki theater charade. Absolutely. What the fuck? These guys can't stop printing. They're just never gonna stop printing. They're always gonna print more. God damn it, I need to get out of here. This is a burning house, I gotta get out of here. Give me some gold, give me some silver, give me some Bitcoin.
That's gonna happen, that day is coming. We're gonna have another big inflationary impulse, and when we get it, and it's gonna come from a number of different causes, but one of them is gonna be the fed printing money, so that's coming. This isn't just about getting richer, which if we're right, we all will get richer.
This is about 100%.

**Nico** (0:53)
Everybody, welcome to another episode of Simply Bitcoin IRO. I'm here joined with the one, the only legendary Larry Lepard, author of The Big Print, and I consider him a dear friend as well. Larry, how are you doing?

**Larry Lepard** (1:04)
I'm doing great. Nice to see you, Nico. You are a dear friend. I'm glad to hear your growing family is doing well.

**Nico** (1:10)
I appreciate it, Larry. So I think the topic on everybody's minds, and I think what everyone's going through, we were talking a little bit about this off-camera, which is where we are in the cycle, right?
And I think a lot of people, I think there was this two components that made this cycle particularly painful. I think number one was, I think a lot of people had expectations with the approval of the spot Bitcoin ETF, with the performance of a lot of the treasury companies. And then of course, the election of President Trump was the first pro Bitcoin president. And the cycle performs, I would say, it really didn't top on euphoria, it topped on apathy. So I want to get your take on that, Larry, and then we'll dive deeper down the rabbit hole.

**Larry Lepard** (2:02)
Yeah, well, look, trying to predict the price of Bitcoin is a very hard thing to do and always has been. It kind of trades like a wild animal. It just doesn't do what you would expect it to do. And that's why hodling is so hard.
When it was going through 100 and it was 124 last October, I was convinced we were on our way to 150, 180 this year, and sure enough, we weren't. And so I was dead-ass wrong. And it looks like I was kind of thinking the four-year cycle had kind of dissipated. And now that we were in a broader audience of participants, including institutions, the government, etc. But it turns out, no. So here we are back in the bear market. And it looks kind of like all the other bear markets, although slightly different. Each one has its own different flavor. And as we were saying earlier, before we can return on that, it's interesting to me that this has known as deep. I mean, this is an asset that in prior bear markets, went down 90, 80, 70, high 60s percents. And we were at 124, I believe, round numbers in October of last year.
So now, I don't know, 10 months ago.
And we're at 60, 59, I guess now as we look at it, but roughly 60 today. So that's 50 percent drawdown. So the drawdowns have gotten smaller over time, and maybe the upside has gotten somewhat smaller too. I mean, we didn't, I know a lot of us thought that the last run up would take as much higher than 125, and it didn't.
But this kind of fits in a little bit with the whole notion that it's becoming a more widely adopted asset with less volatility. And a lot of people who study it and look at the volatility of Bitcoin have noticed that it is going down. You could say, in my view, it's a good thing because what it reflects is that there's a deeper bid, and there's more adoption and that it's not fickle.
And I think the objective of bear markets is to weed out the tourists, as you said earlier, and to test who really has conviction.
And it also gives you great buying opportunities. I mean, when Bitcoin was at 125, I never thought I'd have a chance to buy more of it at this kind of pricing level, and now I do.
And since I have substantial gold, silver assets, I've been able to sell some of those and use it to buy this cheap Bitcoin. So it is what it is. And I mean, it's interesting. The last one had FTX, was really caught by the FTX blow up, the last big one, which took us down to 15,000. And that was pretty easy to point to. I said, well, these criminals and shit coiners kind of messed it all up. This one's a little harder to explain. I think more recently, what probably has been going on, and there have been some articles on this recently, is that people are losing faith in the debasement trade. I mean, it's interesting that last fall, Bitcoin was up, gold was up, silver was up. These are all three part of the debasement trade. You know, the notion that the government's going to print more money forever in increasing amounts, and therefore you have to have money that the government can't print. I'm active in the gold space as well, so I follow it and I'm very much aware of it. Silver broke through 50 last year and went to 120 That's pretty substantial and hadn't done that ever. 50 was the top for the last 100 years. Gold broke out and I think was up 67% last year. That's very rare too. Typically a good year for gold, a very good year for gold is 20 or 30 percent. And until October, Bitcoin was racing right along with them. So, and to me, that was all occurring because those three assets all smelled more government debasement. Big deficits, that was at 6 percent on GDP. Interest rates causing a $1.3 trillion interest rate tab for the federal government and so forth. And so I think what happened is this year, Warsh got appointed, and Warsh has been able to masquerade as a hawk. And he's not, in my opinion, and he'll be proven that he can't be. I mean, I think one of the first things we've got to do, if we really want to fix the money in this place, that is the world in the US, we've got to get everybody to understand that we're being gaslit by the Fed. They're just lying to us 24-7. I mean, they have to print the money, and they have to print it in a way that keeps the structure alive. That's been true since 1913, it's been true since 71 The money supply grows at roughly 7 percent a year. So that's the real rate of inflation. Now, within that, you get ups and downs and all kinds of movement, and they've managed to cook the numbers pretty well. But there's nothing that's really going to stop that. But we've still got a lot of market participants who actually think the Fed makes a difference and thinks the Fed can solve this problem. I've got people on my Twitter feed telling me that worse doesn't really control the Fed, the 12 governors control. I mean, it's all a charade. It's all a complete Kabuki theater charade.