**Rustin** (0:00)
Sell, sell, sell, it is over, people. Find your nearest exit and get the f*** out. Saylor, murdered Bitcoin. It's dead, killed in cold blood on live television. Like JFK, it's the same thing, it is the same thing. You, sell it all. I've been writing about like three things in 30 years, and this is one of them. Sell, sell, sell the whole...
The hell with this bearish shit. Do it. Oh, we're not ready for that one.
Let's do this. Oh, oh. Bear Stearns is fine, by the way. That's what we're working with, Jim Cramer. The man who told you Bear Stearns was fine five days before it collapsed is waiting on the Bitcoin situation on X for the world to read. And Saylor's response to the man criticizing him, quote, just a flesh wound, Jimmy. Money Python, Black Knight, both arms gone, both legs gone. It's a scratch. Is it just a flesh wound or is something actually broken this time? Welcome back. I'm Rustin. And buckle up. We got four massive stories to get to. One, what the actual market data says. Normal cycle or something actually broke. Two, the boring banking rule almost nobody was talking about that it seems actually a lot about where we are right now. Three, the MicroStrategy doomsday scenario can strategy actually go to zero? Allegedly, yes, hypothetically. And we're gonna show you the exact number that some believe could trigger the unraveling of MicroStrategy. If Saylor was warning us all along, then I would have decided it matters. And four, the full Inverse Cramer track record on Bitcoin and what it means for all of us right now. Let's get to it.
Bitcoin is trading right around $61,000, down approximately 32% from $87,000, $88,000 at the yearly open, down roughly 55% from the all-time high $126,000. We hit that around October 6th, 2025 Total liquidations, $1.6 billion leverage traders, people who bet with borrowed money, vaporized in real time. ETF data, 13 consecutive days of outflows. I think we're up to 15 now, the longest streak ever recorded. Total, approximately $4.3 billion pulled out of Bitcoin ETFs. Now, before we start blaming Saylor for his 32 Bitcoin sell, who is actually selling? Jim Ferrioli, Director of Digital Currencies Research at the Swab Center for Financial Research, answered that this week, primarily people who bought in the last year and a half. Average cost basis around $83,000. They wrote it to $126,000, watch it get cut in half, and they folded.
And here's what their own research says about that. When more than half of all Bitcoin in circulation is held at an unrealized loss, sellers eventually get exhausted. And when sellers get exhausted, bottoms form. Now here's the number I want you to see. This guy ran the year to date ROI for Bitcoin against every prior midterm year on record. Average Bitcoin drawdown from yearly open at this point in a midterm year, 31% Bitcoin. Current drawdown from the yearly open, 31% to 32% were literally the average. This isn't Bitcoin breaking. This is like right on schedule. Into the crypto versus base case, June low, counter trend rally, one more low around October. The realized price, average cost basis of every Bitcoin holder on chain sits around 53,000 to 54,000. Bear markets historically touched the realized price before turning. That's the honest picture. Now, here's a boring story that kind of explains everything. There is a rule sitting in the Basel III global banking framework. The number is 1,250%.
This is the risk weight applied to Bitcoin if a bank wants to hold it on its balance sheet. Translation. For every $1 of Bitcoin a bank wants to hold, they must keep $12.50 in reserve capital against it. Not 10%, not 50%, 1,250. This is the regulatory equivalent of your government walking up to every bank on earth, pointing at Bitcoin and saying, touch that and we'll destroy your capital ratios. Allegedly, this is why the big institutional money, the pension funds, the insurance companies, the commercial banks are still locked out. And that's the vacuum Saylor has been filling. Now the Clarity Act, first crypto regulatory framework in American history should be Bitcoin's big institutional unlock.
Here's the problem. Jeff Booth says it plainly.
**Jeff Booth** (4:57)
I don't think things like Clarity Act, I don't think that they may help Bitcoin go up in pieces of paper right away. But I think it's to try to get people to use stable coins instead of Bitcoin and to try to slowly capture what we're talking about.
But I don't think it'll work.
**Rustin** (5:18)
There it is. The Clarity Act is stalled in the Senate. Banks rejected the White House's own compromise. And even if it passes, the first beneficiary is stable coin issuers.
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