Is Michael Saylor About to Trigger a Bitcoin Death Spiral? | Truth Block

**Hurley** (0:00)
Bitcoin just dropped straight through its 200-week moving average, the line that normally holds bear market bottoms. Strategies STRC is breaking down into the 70s. MSDR stock just printed its lowest price in three years. And the rumor getting louder by the hour is that Michael Saylor is about to get liquidated and the Bitcoin death spiral has officially begun. Meanwhile, it looks like the biggest bubble in history, AI, might be starting to pop. Will it drag Bitcoin all the way down with it? Today, I'm going to slow this whole thing down and do the one thing nobody's screaming death spiral has actually done. Let's check if it's real. This is TruthBlock. I'm Hurley.
That's mine truth.
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All right, let's go. I'm wearing my laser-eyed bear shirt, and the 58K gang is officially back from the dead. Last cycle, this price was a magnet, and here we are again, except this time we got here on the way down instead of the way up. And with this recent wick lower, a record 10.8 million coins are now held at a loss. And a huge chunk of the selling has come from the ETFs. The headline says Wall Street's finally heading for the exits, but I'd push back on that. I don't think these ETF holders were as institutional as we were sold. The real institutions have a toe-in at most, which makes these outflows look a lot more like retail capitulation than smart money-leaving. And here's the part I want to say plainly. The average price every holder paid, which is the realized price, sits around $53,000 right now. And in just about every past bear market, Bitcoin has dipped down and tagged that line. So it is very possible we see a new bottom in the low 50s. In my opinion, the longer we sit under the 200-week moving average, the better the odds we go touch the realized price. But I want to be really clear about this.
Even if we visit the 40s, it still would not spell a death spiral. A 50-plus percent drawdown is a Tuesday in Bitcoin. We've done this over and over and over. So where does death spiral even come from? It comes from one specific fear. Saylor's strategy holds over 850,000 Bitcoin. STRC and MSDR are cracking. Saylor gets liquidated, and a liquidated Saylor becomes a forseller of hundreds of thousands of coins into a market with no bids. That's the avalanche. That's how you get a headline that says Bitcoin at 10K.
If Saylor and strategy truly had liquidation risk, it would be terrifying, but still not a death knell for Bitcoin. Good thing for us, it isn't a risk at all. Adam Livingston ran the numbers this morning, and they pretty much end the argument. Let's go back to the bottom of the 2022 bear market after FTX imploded. At that moment, strategy's debt was worth more Bitcoin than the company ever held. So the common stock's exposure to Bitcoin wasn't just low, it was negative. On paper, shareholders were past zero, and the stock did not go to zero then. There was no liquidation. Saylor wasn't forced to sell a single coin. The company walked straight through the worst collapse in crypto history.
Now, look at today, when strategy holds nearly 850,000 Bitcoin. Subtract every senior claim, and the common shares still have positive exposure to almost 496,000 coins.
Per share, that's about $82 of Bitcoin sitting under a stock trading in the 80s. Back in 2022, that number was negative 2 bucks.
Today, it's a positive 82 Livingston called the balance sheet, built for war. And the math backs him up. So here's where people are getting it wrong.
The $25,000 level everyone points to is just where the common shares get squeezed to nothing on paper. And that already happened in 2022 with no forced sale. A preferred like STRC is perpetual. Nobody can call Saylor at $58,000 and demand the coins.
And the debt doesn't come due for years. Scott Melker put it cleanest. Forget liquidation. The real question is duration. Can strategy stay standing long enough for Bitcoin to recover? And as long as the capital markets stay open, it can.
Saylor is the easiest name for a scared market to hunt. It makes sense that the biggest holder is the biggest target. He's the hero in the bull market and the villain in the bear market. And that flip tells you more about the market's mood than about his balance sheet. And since we're talking about getting liquidated, that fear only ever comes true when somebody else controls your collateral. That's why I use Ledn. If you need dollars but you don't want to sell your stack, Ledn lets you borrow against your Bitcoin. And your coins are never lent out and never rehypothecated. With Ledn, you stay in control of the liquidation risk, not some trading desk playing games with your sats. And borrowing when Bitcoin is beaten down under its long-term average is the smart end of the cycle to do it, as your downside is already compressed. So check out Ledn today at learn.ledn.io/simply.