Instant Reaction: US Adds 162,000 Jobs, Topping All Estimates

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This is a breaking news update from Bloomberg. Instant reaction and analysis from our 3,000 journalists and analysts around the world.

**Caroline Hipker** (0:19)
And with your breaking news on the payrolls numbers for August, the two-month payroll and net revision data adds 55,000 jobs to the United States. Non-farm payrolls rising, therefore, month on month by 162,000.
That is a, well, three times the estimate, 55,000. The unemployment rate, though, stays the same, 4.1%. The estimate had been for that to stay on hold, and indeed, that's where we are. So, S&P 500, e-mini futures this morning turn negative. They're down by 2 tenths of 1%. So, this in breaking news, treasuries tumbling after August job creation. Topps estimates, remember, no markets will be trading on Monday. So, important to understand the ramifications. That is your breaking news. The US August non-farm payrolls data. Tom, Damian, what do you make of it?

**Tom Keene** (1:18)
Well, what I make of it is you did a very good job. You've never done the US jobs report before, have you?

**Caroline Hipker** (1:23)
Not live and not out of New York.

**Tom Keene** (1:26)
Let me do the market. Thank you, Caroline Hipker, so much. This is a wow report with wow market move. Equity's move south as well. We don't have a VIX number yet. But in the yield space, we have a seismic move. Damian, I looked at the tenure out to 4.80% and it's just simply price down and yield up.

**Damian Sassower** (1:48)
Well, I mean, it's the revision, right? I mean, we went from down 23,000 last month to up 21,000. And now we're up 162 Tom, you asked for it. You get it. 100,000 plus in non-farm payroll adds this. I mean, and like, look, you have some average hourly earnings data, the month over month acceleration of 0.3%.
So, you know, and the labor force participation rates, we point out higher, still coming off the lows. So, yeah.

**Tom Keene** (2:10)
And the flu, I'm not using my HP12C, but my quick math is 217,000 positive on the non-farm payroll plus a two-month payroll revision as well.

**Damian Sassower** (2:22)
Shorten duration here. I mean, you don't want to be long the long end, I guess. I mean, the steepener should be working, one would think. I mean, we're going to ask Amy Wu Silverman all about that.

**Tom Keene** (2:29)
We'll get that. Right now, Dr. Sahm with us as she digests some of the early data as well.
Claudia, a fascinating report. Is there any value here to three-month moving averages now, or is it such a cacophony that's not valuable?

**Claudia Sahm** (2:45)
There's always value to the three-month moving average. I mean, I think that going to this, trying to smooth this out, not get too hung up on a month to month. Honestly, we have seen for many months a lot of bouncing around a negative print to a positive print. Again, that's because the breakeven is not that far from zero. So we're going to keep having this above and below zero. I think this is where we're at to state. But I will also say that having the upside surprise this month after a downside surprise last month, this isn't just random noise. There was a really important piece of the K through 12 teachers and staff that shows up in state and local government education. That was a big decline last month. It also was part of the revisions and it reversed this month. And it is just an area that has a very strong seasonal, so I think there's a story to the noise. I don't want to just live in the state and be like, wow, this is hard.

**Tom Keene** (3:41)
Are Fed presidents and governors, Dr. Sahm, are they as confused as Puffy the cat?

**Claudia Sahm** (3:49)
Puffy's pretty sharp.
What I think the Fed will, it's kind of a headline pullout of this. I mean, payrolls have been difficult to read for some time because we've got so many shifts in the labor supply that they've really kind of downweighted that in terms of a strong cyclical signal, the one that they still look a lot to, the unemployment rate. And wow, I mean, that thing is really stable, has been low and stable. And that is for them at least a really important signal of like, do they need to, you know, or is there something here for them to step in on a problem? And it's very, very low and stable. So I think that and that's probably where their attention will continue to focus. And the payrolls are going to just be something to dig into the details, understand it and look at the trends. I mean, maybe even more than a three month smooth on that, like really just kind of smooth out this bouncy noise.