If MicroStrategy Crumbles Will Bitcoin Fail? | Larry Lepard | Simply Originals

**SPEAKER_1** (0:00)
Bitcoin just hit its most oversold level versus gold in recorded history. Let me say that again, most oversold in history. And for context, the last time this indicator flashed, Bitcoin went on a furious 660% rally that made Peter Schiff his depends, 660%.
Now, despite history and math, the bears are on the loose. They have a specific theory, they're hypothesizing, and I use that word generously, the downfall of Michael Saylor of strategy. And they believe, genuinely believe, that if strategy fails, Bitcoin kicks the chair. Well, Larry Lepard isn't having it. He just went face to face with the ex-macro heavyweight, the Saylor unbeliever known as quote, the raven. And Larry brought the hammer down. Stick around because by the end of this video, you're gonna understand three things. One, the actual math behind the strategy death spiral narrative. Spoiler, it's not really math. Two, what Larry Lepard thinks Bitcoin hits if the bond market actually breaks.
And one of those numbers has like four, three, why one of the most bullish things I heard in the entire debate was somebody saying, I don't know. We got a lot to get into.
Look, I'll be honest with you. When I first saw quote, the raven and Larry going at it on X, my first instinct was, well, we've seen this episode before. Then I actually listened and here's the thing. Raven is not stupid. Actually, I'm a fan of his macro analysis, despite his sailor and Bitcoin bearishness. Same with like a finance a lot. He's not a troll. He raises real questions about management credibility, about leverage, about what happens to strategy if Bitcoin drops 50%. And they're staring down a $1.7 billion annual dividend obligation. Those are real questions. But Larry does something many wouldn't expect. He doesn't dodge them. He takes every single question head-on and hits it with a sledgehammer of actual math. And that is worth 15 minutes of your life. Don't forget to click the subscribe. Here we go. In one corner, quote the Raven, ex-macro, heavyweight, sailor, unbeliever. His argument, and I'm paraphrasing slightly, these Bitcoin religious zealots are going to get wrecked. Obviously, he didn't read the prophecy. In the other corner, Lawrence, Larry Lepard, hard-money legend. This man has been calling the collapse of the fiat system longer than most of our viewers have had a driver's license. Larry did read the prophecy.
We got a good one today.

**Larry Lepard** (3:00)
They thought that people wouldn't, that he wouldn't be able to service the 1.7% dividend, which if you look at the map, the balance sheet, it's kind of patently absurd. I mean, he's got...

**SPEAKER_3** (3:09)
It's a $1.7 billion dividend.

**Larry Lepard** (3:14)
Yeah, it's a $1.7 billion dividend, an enterprise value of 54, 52 million of Bitcoin that he's got, plus another $2.6 million reserve. So he's got 54 billion of things that he can use to basically service 1.7.
It's very hard to see how there's gonna be any kind of a problem coming up with 1.7 when you're talking about 54.5 billion of assets, right? I mean, it's just, Bitcoin's gotta go down 60, right?

**SPEAKER_3** (3:48)
That, yeah, that I agree with you.
I don't contest that. If there's one thing that I think we could probably stipulate that makes both of our points, and really the fact that I'm trying to get across is, the larger the cash outlay obligation becomes, and the lower the price of Bitcoin comes, the far more risk there is to the company.

**Larry Lepard** (4:13)
Oh, there's no doubt about it. There's no doubt about it.

**SPEAKER_3** (4:15)
Then there would be, if this was just a company sitting on, you know, unlevered Bitcoin. And that's the only argument that I'm making, which is that the plunge could accelerate quickly. You use the term death spiral. I try not to use terms like that, but like, shit could hit the fan to the downside quicker because he has these capital requirements and because the more, the higher he raises the dividend and the bigger that obligation gets and the more debt they take on, any type of cash obligation or leverage they put on top of this pile of Bitcoin, the bigger that gets, the smaller the move has to be to the downside to trigger sales.

**SPEAKER_1** (4:59)
Okay, okay, let's try to steel man that because you can't dismiss it. His argument isn't that Bitcoin is worthless. It's more surgical than that. It goes kind of like this. Strategy has built an extraordinarily complex financial structure on top of Bitcoin as collateral. Preferred stock, convertible notes, a $1.7 billion annual dividend obligation, that is B like B for billion, not 1.7% billion. If Bitcoin drops 50%, strategy's ability to service that dividend gets genuinely stressful, somewhat. And if the market loses confidence in management, especially with sailors selling $370 million in stock, you get a forced unwind. Forced unwind means they're selling Bitcoin into the market during a drawdown. That's a bare case. And look, it's not insane.