Dylan LeClair: Why Bitcoin Treasury Companies Sold Off and What Comes Next

**Dylan LeClair** (0:00)
Michael Saylor in 2021 was like the hero, and then all of a sudden, you know, Wall Street Journal articles and the strategy failed, and it's over. Strategy, $30 billion of Bitcoin after all of its liabilities. And the market three weeks ago said it's not worth credit card interest rates. The bears got a little ahead of themselves.

**Natalie Brunell** (0:15)
I just recently had Parker Lewis on the show. He thinks that you should just buy Bitcoin.

**Dylan LeClair** (0:20)
I hear people like Parker, I don't agree with a lot of his takes. Bitcoin winning means Bitcoin in the capital market is merging. That was always the end game, you know, taking Bitcoin to $100 trillion is going to be more than just sat stacking in a retail account.

**Natalie Brunell** (0:33)
On CalSheet, they're asking how low will Bitcoin get this year? 58% of people say below $55,000. Do you agree? Dylan LeClair here from Metaplanet. So great to see you. Thanks for coming on.

**Dylan LeClair** (0:50)
Natalie, thanks for having me.

**Natalie Brunell** (0:51)
I feel like there's a lot to talk about because a lot of people are hating on the Bitcoin treasury companies. Talk to me about the sentiment right now and is it justified?

**Dylan LeClair** (1:02)
I think I said this on X a couple of days ago. I think it would be a lot more unclear to me about where we are and how this all resolves. If I hadn't already seen this story almost to the exact T four years ago.
Everybody that's been in Bitcoin for a while, you go through the cycles. But I remember very distinctly in 2022, Michael Saylor in 2021 was like the hero, and then all of a sudden Wall Street Journal articles and the strategy failed and it's over, and he's going to sell all his Bitcoin, and that didn't happen.
I love the Bitcoin maximalists. I am a Bitcoin maximalist, and I really appreciate that there's a subset of those people that are like never going to own a stock. I'm never going to hold Sats in my cold storage and run a node as they should. But Bitcoin winning means Bitcoin and the capital market is merging. That was always the end game. Taking Bitcoin to $100 trillion is going to be more than just Sats stacking in a retail account, which everybody should do, by the way. I think it's important to say that everybody should buy Bitcoin, cold storage, self-sovereignty. You can't replicate self-sovereignty with the security, right? But the Bitcoiners that make Bitcoin their identity, that think Michael Saylor is the enemy, I think are very much mistaken.

**Natalie Brunell** (2:24)
Well, strategy has been around for a while now, but we saw this explosion of new and smaller treasury companies last year.
Now we're seeing some of them fold. A lot are selling Bitcoin. Is it really just because Bitcoin tanked? I mean, is it required for these companies to succeed, for Bitcoin to essentially do well? And is it just because of the price that so many of them are struggling? Or what is it?

**Dylan LeClair** (2:46)
Yeah, I mean, I think on a long time frame, let's say five to 10 years, if Bitcoin doesn't go up and doesn't appreciate, then the thesis of all these companies was wrong. Right? But Bitcoin is a 50 volatility asset, 50% vol. To say that on any 12-month time frame, it's only going to go up or that a 50% move changes your thesis is wrong.
And also, I think all these companies are, one, they're being valued, but two, their capital structure is levered to Bitcoin. And so the notion that Bitcoin goes down 50% and a bunch of companies that are levered expressions of the Bitcoin thesis are going to do well, no, of course not, then they're going to underperform. Right? If Bitcoin goes down 50% and you're levered to Bitcoin, you're going to underperform. But conversely, Bitcoin goes up, then they'll probably have a form. Right? So I think we've seen 12 months of basically, or nine months of like straight down since the all time highs. And so obviously, you know, sentiments in the gutter for not only Bitcoin, but Bitcoin adjacent investments.
But yeah, I would, you know, I've bet basically everything on the thesis of Bitcoin continuing on. And I think Metaplanet is 100% aligned with this thing's not going away, it's not dead. You know, frankly, when the consensus on Bitcoin Twitter or crypto Twitter, you know, people that have spent 10 years doing nothing but talking about the asset every single day, when a majority of those people are saying, you know, it's over for strategy and they're going to market sell hundreds of thousands of Bitcoin and you know, Michael Saylor had $30 billion of Bitcoin or strategy, $30 billion of Bitcoin after all of its liabilities. And the market three weeks ago said it's not worth credit card interest rates. So like the market got a little ahead of itself. The bears got a little ahead of themselves. And so, you know, I think in due course, this shall pass. I mean, there's a lot of lessons learned about, you know, capital structure management and the USD Reserve. And those are things that we can discuss. But yeah, it's to see the Bitcoiners that make their identity about Bitcoin writing off Bitcoin adjacent investments. It's like, in 2020, you know, I was on Twitter and everybody was an anonymous person. This is before the laser eyes existed, right? And the thesis was like, Bitcoin is going to infiltrate Wall Street and it's going to become a hundred trillion dollar asset.