David Hunter: Stocks Aren't Done Going Up, But the Big Crash Is Coming

**David Hunter** (0:00)
I'm predicting, whether it will happen or not, something like a 70 or 80% bear market in the global bust. The reason I'm calling for something bigger than just a normal recession is because of leverage. We have far more leverage today in the system than we had in 2008-9, and that was off the charts then. That being said, I think the next few months are going to be really strong. The market could be up 30 to 40% in the next six months. And as you approach that high, you're drawn back in by the narrative that says, oh, this is not even close to a top. That should perk your ears up and make you nervous. Doesn't mean you're right at the top, but it means you're beginning to see the shift that tells you that this thing could roll over at any time. What will cause it? Obviously, nobody knows for sure, but it's usually...

**Natalie Brunell** (0:53)
Hey, everyone, welcome back to the show. It's been a while since we've heard from David Hunter, the contrarian. He works with contrarian macro advisors, and he's here to share his take on why he thinks that we are pretty much in for a meltup that's gonna lead to a global bust, right? We've still got a ways to go with equities in this rally that we've seen. And I wanna break it all down because you have been one of my most popular macro guests. David, it's great to see you.

**David Hunter** (1:22)
Yeah. Hi, Natalie. It's great to see you.

**Natalie Brunell** (1:24)
Well, let's go ahead and start with maybe a zoom out version of what's your macro take on the economy and on markets right now.

**David Hunter** (1:33)
Sure. Yeah, I think the economy is still surprisingly intact. I have always talked about a have and have not economy. Some people call it a K-shaped economy. And I think that's still the issue is that half the population doesn't feel like we're in a booming economy at all, probably more than half.
And frankly, we are seeing signs that things are moving towards a recession. We're not there yet, I don't think. I know there are a few people out there saying that, based on some numbers, you could argue we're in recession now. But I think we're moving that way. The economy is slowing. But amazingly, it's still intact. You could have made these same comments a year ago, and it's still kind of pushing along. But I do think as we get closer to the end of this year, we could be in a recession, and if not, very close. Manufacturing, because of the reshoring and all that's going on with the AI, that's really holding the economy up, and that side of things looks really good, as you might see in some of the industrial stocks, etc.
But half the consumer really is struggling. Amazingly, consumption is still fine, but you are seeing signs there, we're having to pull more out of savings to keep their shop till you drop spending going, and that obviously can't be sustained. So jobs are slowing, but every time you think they're really going to start giving you bad numbers, they pull themselves back up. So we're just kind of, I don't want to say steady as we go, but we're skating along here in positive territory on the economy side. The markets, I am as bullish as ever. I do think it comes to an end, maybe before the end of this year, but right now, my numbers are, you know, if you go to my targets, you're still looking at more than 30% upside in all the indexes, all the four indexes I target. So, you know, Dow, I just raised my target in my July letter to 10,000. I had been at, no, I'm sorry, not 10,000, 70,000. I had been at 67,000. My S&P number is 10,000, and I didn't raise that one this time, but I'm at 10 there. I'd raised it in early June. I'm at 36,000 on the Nasdaq and raised that in early June, and I'm at 4,000 on the Russell. And, you know, for a long time, I got beat up for my Russell bullishness because it lagged the others, but it has certainly caught up this year and I think still has, you know, good upside ahead. So what I see out there is really, I think the next few months are going to be really strong. Whether this takes, you know, I get people on X constantly wanting me to tell them what time it's going to top, you know, and I say it can happen very quickly because I think we're in a parabolic. If you look at the monthlies on the charts, you can still argue in spite of June consolidation, you can still argue that it looks very vertical here and that it's going to just get steeper from here. So if that's the case, if we don't go through a long drawn out consolidation, you can get to those numbers, believe it or not, within a few months.