CPI Looms Along with AI Results, but Iran in Focus

**Keith Lansford** (0:05)
Welcome to the Schwab Market Update Podcast, where we prepare you for each trading day with a recap of recent news and a look at what's ahead.
I'm Keith Lanceford, and here is Schwab's Early Look at the Markets for Tuesday, August 11th. The big event this week is tomorrow's 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time July Consumer Price Index, or CPI, and trading could stay relatively quiet ahead of that print. Early expectations are for a slight 0.1% headline rise in July, with Core CPI up 0.2% month over month. Core extracts food and energy. On an annual basis, analysts see 3.4% headline inflation and 2.5% Core down from 3.5% and 2.6% a month earlier. While unpleasant surprises can't be ruled out, especially considering a surge in producer prices that raised wholesale costs earlier this year, if numbers come in as expected, it could further reduce September rate hike odds. As of late Monday, chances of a 25 basis point hike next month were back above 50% after falling to around 40% late Friday in the wake of the soft July jobs report, according to the CME FedWatch tool. The economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, and the government subtracted 103,000 jobs from previously reported May and June gains, the worst two-month revision in a year. Last week's jobs report allows the Fed to be patient, but a hot CPI print this week would likely reverse that, said Colin Martin, Head of Fixed Income Research and Strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research. When the labor market is strong and inflation is high, it's harder to defend not-hiking rates. But if the labor market is showing weakness, there could be officials worried about potential downside risks following a rate hike. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee, said Monday that some number of hikes might be necessary, Bloomberg reported. Hammack dissented last month when the Fed kept rates unchanged. This week also includes $125 billion in Treasury auctions. Lack of interest might keep pressure on Treasuries, supporting yields and keeping borrowing costs elevated. With yields already elevated, weak auctions could suggest that there are lingering fiscal concerns that are preventing investors from being more interested in high yields relative to the last 15 years or so, Martin said. A three-year note auction today starts things off, followed by a ten-year note auction tomorrow and a 30-year bond auction Thursday.
Turning to earnings, the calendar feels quiet after the last few exhausting weeks. Cisco is key tomorrow afternoon, preceded later today by CoreWeave and Lumentum. Shares of Optics and Laser Maker Lumentum are up around 100% year-to-date, helped by growing optimism around the AI infrastructure space. The consensus earnings per share estimate is $2.97 on expected revenue of $987.9 million.
CoreWeave rebounded lately after a summer swoon, lifted by several partnership announcements. Investors may want more color on those when it reports today.
On Monday, major indexes walked back some of last week's sharp gains, pinned by rising oil prices and treasury yields. Progress towards Middle East agreement slowed to a crawl over the weekend, and the Strait of Hormuz remains largely shut. Just two ships had made the transit on Monday through late afternoon US time, about 3% of normal daily traffic, according to the online Strait of Hormuz monitor. Crude topped $81 per barrel after falling near $75 last week, when the Trump administration hinted a deal might be close. Wall Street's Retreat Monday wasn't dramatic in light volume. This is a slow time of the year, with many people on vacation, and the looming CPI might also keep some on the sidelines. Technically, the S&P 500 index last week broke out of its trading range of between $7,250 and $7,600, which had held for three months. When the S&P 500 hits fresh all-time highs, additional buying pressure can occur due to performance chasing by fund managers and short covering. From a technical perspective, one could say we are overbought on a very near-term basis, given the strong weak. But the momentum is to the upside, said Nathan Peterson, Director of Derivatives Research and Strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research. I believe the outlook favors the bulls due to bullish technical factors and momentum, potential performance chasing and potential short covering. Market breadth remains healthy with about 70% of S&P 500 stocks above their respective 200-day moving averages, possibly reflecting earnings growth that looked solid across multiple sectors. By mid-day Monday, however, the S&P 500 had barely moved, even though more than 280 of 500 components fell. Five of 11 S&P 500 sectors managed to climb Monday, led by energy thanks to Crude's Rally. Healthcare also rose more than 1% and is up more than 4% over the last month to improve its weak year-to-day standing. Despite this, healthcare companies are dead last in the second quarter and projected full year earnings growth according to factsat. Strength from Eli Lilly after its recent earnings extended into the new week.