Chart of the Day: ORCL

**SPEAKER_1** (0:00)
It's time now for our chart of the day. Joining us for a breakdown is Kevin Horner, Senior Manager, Trading Services, Charles Schwab. Kevin, good to see you this morning. So their point about the bear thesis, there have been a lot of bearish views about ORCL, and the question is, what's the payoff? When do we see the proof in the pudding?
And then there's questions around the circular financing and where ORCL sits in all of this. But you've gotta look at a 90-day chart first for ORCL. What should we notice there?

**Kevin Horner** (0:29)
Yeah, you're right. Good morning, Diane. It's been a rough go for ORCL. This 90-day chart alone reflects a drawdown from its peak to its trough of more than 50%.
So it's had a very rough go. It's been a lot of fits and starts, as we'll see on my next chart. But this one in particular highlights the struggle. You know, what you're looking at is levels at 158, major resistance, 138, hopefully support for this thing. Coincident with the 200-period moving average on this 90-day, four-hour chart. And so if we're trading the trend, we need to pay attention to this 138 ledge and the 200-period moving average, under which we greatly increase the odds of a drawdown deeper into that 115 area once more. I mean, this is a spot where bulls are gonna want to try and mount a stand if we are to believe that there's any new short-term trend underpinning this move. Unfortunately, it's too difficult to discern at this moment. We do have a little bit of a bounce at this ledge, meaning we've kind of digested this negative news and seemingly are trying to maintain this ledge at 138 But the next couple of days here, oversold or not, we don't know if a bounce is coming, but we know that under 138, things get decidedly more negative and increase the risk to the downside. So I think that's a level that bears watching on this short-term chart.

**SPEAKER_1** (1:59)
Okay, that's a level that bears watching. So that's a look at the short-term chart for ORCL. Let's zoom out to a longer-term chart. What should we notice there?

**Kevin Horner** (2:07)
Well, it's unfortunate, Diane, because as we zoom out, we're gonna see higher prices historically. We're looking at a two-year chart now, and this is really what's interesting to me. I mean, this thing made an incredible move off of the lows in March-April of 25, from that 120 area all the way up to 328, our high close, and then just completely reversed that move as evidence of the speculative AI trade holding just didn't materialize for ORCL, so they've not been able to deliver. And so what we see now is that same 138 to 140 zone, 140 represented by the 50-day moving average here, continuing to show us lower highs, and the clear struggle below the 50, below the 200, and also below the 20, which I don't have on this chart, just because we have not seen any action validating a 20-day moving average. So it's a difficult spot to be in for ORCL here from a technical perspective. And what I'm seeing below, RSI showing a rejection at a level that would validate bearish regime there. And we're getting close to a crossover with the MACD below at the zero line, which is also a potential bearish indication. So it's really not a great look for ORCL here. Price action is not ideal. And so what I think a lot of traders are going to be forced to do is allow price to validate some of these levels before considering any point of entry, unfortunately. It's just a really difficult chart after a real optimistic viewpoint early to mid last year.

**SPEAKER_1** (3:40)
Yeah, I remember that time. It's been a time since then. All right. Thank you, Kevin. Kevin Horner, Senior Manager of Trading Services, Charles Schwab.