Cantor Just Called the Bitcoin Bottom! | Here's What Nobody Is Connecting | Simply SatoSHE

**SPEAKER_1** (0:00)
A $26 billion firm published a note this week saying that Bitcoin's bear market may be entering its final stretch. Not on a hunch or speculation, they actually pulled data from the last three Bitcoin cycles and found a pattern that's telling their clients a bottom is close. And that's not the only signal stacking up. Long-term holder data shows the weak hands are getting exhausted, as we know. And fresh fed data suggests the central bank may have just boxed itself into a corner, it can't get out of clean. I've been sitting on a data point that I think changes the way that you read everything that's happening these last few weeks. The question is whether this is actually the pivot or just the bait for the next fake out.

**SPEAKER_2** (0:45)
Take it, take the bait.

**SPEAKER_1** (0:46)
Welcome back to Satoshi. Let's get into it.
Before I get into it, if you're new here, hi. Hit the subscribe and smash the like button. It genuinely helps the show reach more people who need to hear this stuff. And share this episode with a friend today because we put together a special Simply Bitcoin 4th of July clip at the end that you're gonna want to send to every single person you know. So stick around for it. Bitcoin quietly climbed from 58,000 to 62,000 this week, and nobody's throwing a party over it.
Okay, I might be having a barbecue today, but the culture barely noticed. And honestly, I think that that's actually the point. The average person isn't supposed to notice, but let me start with the call itself. Cantor Fitzgerald, Wall Street Bank, $26 billion under management, published a note this week saying Bitcoin's bear market may be entering its final stretch. Their analysts looked at the previous three Bitcoin market cycles. Across all three, Bitcoin bottomed at an average 384 days after its peak. Cantor Fitzgerald in their report said, Ultimately, our belief is that we are only a few months away from the bottom of this pullback. Now, I want to be honest here. This is a projection, not a guarantee. They flagged macro, regulatory, and geopolitical risk as wild cards. But when the firm of this caliber puts that call in writing, it does tend to move the conversation. And on chain data is saying the same thing. While the ETFs were bleeding $4 billion over the last few weeks, whales were buying $16.7 billion worth of Bitcoin in just two weeks. Yes, you heard that right. We had the biggest outflows, but we also had $16.7 billion worth of buying Bitcoin. The Bitcoin ETFs just posted their first net inflow after 10 days straight of outflows, $221 million back in the door. So something shifted this week. The culture has been quiet. The price has been super boring, painful even. The headlines have been brutal, but while everyone was looking away, the people who've been through this before were quietly positioning for what comes next. This photo from Bitcoin Magazine shows that long-term holders are also accumulating. That is the most consistent pattern in Bitcoin's history. Bear markets wash out the weak hands, while the convicted ones take advantage and continue to suck.
But I want to go one layer deeper, because I don't think that $26 billion asset firm Cantor Fitzgerald's call is happening in a vacuum. Jobs data came in soft this week, and people who watch the Fed for a living are starting to say what a lot of us have been waiting to hear. Rate cuts might actually be coming. The thing that's been sitting on Bitcoin's chest all year might finally be lifting. And here's what makes this even more interesting. Global M2 money supply, that's the total amount of money sloshing around the world, just hit an all time high. More dollars, euros, and yuan in existence right now than in any point in history. Bitcoin doesn't care what currency you're measuring in. There's only ever 21 million of it. Every time M2 expands, every unit of Bitcoin becomes relatively more scarce. Historically, when M2 runs, Bitcoin follows, usually with a lag of a few months. Every prior Bitcoin recovery has been preceded by a moment like this. Not always the cut itself, but the shift in expectations. The moment the market starts pricing in relief. We might be at that moment right now, but here's where I want to push past the obvious take, because lower the rates equals good for Bitcoin is the shallow version of this argument. And there's a much more important reason that this matters. Larry Lepard, Fund Manager, longtime sound money advocate, talked to my husband Nico in this interview here. And I just haven't been able to get it out of my head.