Bitcoin Rips to $82K in a Global Bond Crisis! Here's Why It's Just Getting Started | Truth Block

**Hurley** (0:00)
Bitcoin is ripping above $80,000 today, and it just crossed above the 50-week moving average for the first time since its bear market started. And it's doing all of that in the middle of a global bond crisis. Yields ripped higher in nine countries at once. Tokyo and Washington spent a record $98 billion defending the yen and lost anyway. That should have taken Bitcoin apart. But the dip was shallow, it was short, and Bitcoin is back over 80k while the bond market is still burning. And Bitcoin's correlation to the Nasdaq just fell off a cliff. For the first time ever, Bitcoin is tracking gold more closely than it tracks tech stocks. And one analyst says Bitcoin already sniffed out what's coming, and that $300,000 could be next. So is the market finally repricing what Bitcoin actually is? And if so, how big does this reprice get? This is TruthBlock, I'm Hurley, let's mine truth.
Last week, I gave you my line. If Bitcoin holds 80k, then closes above the 50 week moving average, the bull market is officially underway. Well, the 50 week sits around 80,400 today, and Bitcoin's above it. Now, the weekly candle doesn't close until Sunday, so this is not done yet. But Galaxy did the work on this one, and their finding is the reason it matters. In 11 of the last 13 bear markets, Bitcoin had already put in its cycle bottom by the time it managed a weekly close above the 50 week average. And the monthly already did it. A monthly close above the 10 month moving average has marked the end of every single Bitcoin bear cycle going back to at least 2016
We closed above it on Monday. And all of this is happening during a full on global bond crisis. Japan's 10 year government bond yield just printed 3% for the first time since 1996
And understand how strange that is. At the start of 2020, that same yield was negative, meaning you paid the Japanese government for the privilege of lending it money. Adam Livingston ran the numbers, and this is the part that should get your attention. Since October of last year, Japan's 10 year has moved more than twice as far as the US 10 year over the exact same window. The world spent 30 years treating Japan as the permanent source of nearly free money. And the price of money in Japan is getting repriced in real time. So they're defending the currency. Japan's Ministry of Finance declares that between July 30th and August 26th, they spent 15.4 trillion yen holding up the yen. That's about 98 billion dollars in under four weeks. And the US Treasury confirmed it joined in using its own foreign exchange reserves. So 98 billion dollars later and the yen went down anyway. And they went right back into the market intervening again this morning. And this isn't only Japan. Robin Brooks put out a chart this week showing long end yields at or near multi-year highs in nine different countries at the same time. And when every developed government on earth is losing the same fight on the same week, there's really only one tool left in the drawer. It ends at the printer.
It always ends at the printer. Now, this combination should have been a disaster for Bitcoin.
When the government pays you almost 5% risk-free, holding something that pays you nothing gets expensive. That's the whole bear case. And it's worked for Bitcoin's entire ETF era.
Every time yields ripped, Bitcoin bled. This week, yields ripped about as hard as they can rip, and Bitcoin went up 5K. Mike Alfred was on the Wolf of All Streets podcast yesterday, and he had an interesting read.

**Mike Alfred** (3:16)
We have a game of chicken right now between the central bankers and bond yields. And I think it's early stages for that. I think Bitcoin sniffed out that there's going to be significant intervention. The question is just how significant is that intervention?
I don't think Basant is going to back down very easily. I think he's a very proud guy. I think he wants to prove that he has domination over the bond market. I think that's a tough game. But ultimately, I think the bond market wins in the sense that Trump has to back off on the geopolitical stuff in order to stop the inflation, in order to stop the fear around what's happening in the Middle East, etc. And then separately, Basant may have to intervene more substantially than the market believes today. I think the combination of those two things could lead to a release of significant compression in the market, triggering the completion over a year or two of a real business cycle. And in that environment, I could see Bitcoin at 300,000.