Bitcoin is Eerily Quiet.. Are We in the Calm Before the Storm? | Truth Block

**Hurley** (0:00)
There's a version of quiet that means everything's fine. And then there's a version that makes the hair on the back of your neck stand up. Bitcoin has now traded inside the same range for 47 straight days. Meanwhile, the Iran conflict continues to yo-yo between threat of World War III and peace talks, with oil ripping and dumping on every headline. American oil supply just hit the lowest level since 1984 The AI stocks holding this whole market up looks to be rolling into a bear market, or perhaps worse. And the biggest Bitcoin buyer on the planet stopped buying and turned net seller. Any one of these should have moved the price, but all's quiet on the sound money front. So which quiet is this? The calm before Bitcoin breaks down again? Or the calm before the storm it was actually built for? This is TruthBlock. I'm Hurley. Let's mine truth.
James Check titled his latest newsletter on Friday, Dead Quiet. And that about covers it. Bitcoin trading activity has fallen to new cycle lows. Volatility is down at around 35%.
And every time vol has been this compressed the past year, last October, in February, and again in late May, a violent expansion followed. And all three times the price went down. But compression like this only tells you a move is coming. It doesn't tell you the direction. This is a coiled spring. And springs go both ways.
And here's the piece not many are talking about. Wall Street figured out how to sell Bitcoin's volatility as a product.
BlackRock launched the first yield-paying Bitcoin ETF last month. And it makes that yield by writing covered calls against a quarter to a third of its Bitcoin every month. Goldman and Binance are running similar versions. In short, the market found a way to get paid on the movement without ever buying the asset. And then there's Michael Saylor. Strategy has gone 28 days now without buying a single Bitcoin. What they have been buying is dollars.
Strategy's cash reserves have climbed from $1.4 billion to $3.2 billion following the latest buy announcement this morning. So the most relentless Bitcoin buyer in human history bought $2 billion worth of Bitcoin above $80,000.
Has now stacked $2.1 billion in cash with Bitcoin below $65k. Buy high, sell low. Somewhere out there, your average retail is feeling seen. But everybody told us that Strategy was the bid. And that Bitcoin falls apart without them. Well, we just ran that experiment for four straight weeks.
And Bitcoin is sitting higher today than the day he announced his last buy. So who's holding the floor? Long-term holder supply just printed an all-time record. About 83% of every Bitcoin in existence is now sitting in wallets that don't sell. The tourists are gone. What's left is people who bought this because they know what they own. Which brings me to a guy I want you to meet. David Hunter has been in market since 1973 and runs Contrarian Macro Advisors. His call is that we will get one final blow-off top in stocks this year before the whole thing comes crashing down. Here's a short clip from his conversation with Natalie Brunel.

**David Hunter** (2:55)
I'm predicting whether it will happen or not something like a 70 or 80% bear market in the global bust. If you get the combination of that and say a 30 to 40% hit to housing prices, the whole wealth effect is huge and you don't come back out of that quickly.

**Hurley** (3:13)
What's interesting is the same man forecasting the biggest economic crash since 1929 is also the most bullish short-term forecaster on Wall Street right now. Hunter has published targets of $10,000 for the SMP and 70,000 on the Dow, which he raised again in his July letter. This is the classic boom and then bust prediction. There's a whole cohort that's been calling for the big one for years now. Lawrence Lepard wrote an entire book about it called The Big Print.
And to his credit, he's honest about the part most of them won't touch.
Larry admits he could be early, and he's been saying so for a long time. And I'm right there with him. I have no idea when this unwind arrives. This year, next year, five years out. How much longer can they keep kicking this can? Nobody watching knows, and neither do I.
What I'm confident about is that the bill eventually comes due for the sins of the fiat system. That isn't a trade with a date on it. That's the whole long-term thesis. And when you can't time something, you position for it instead of predicting it. Which is exactly why this show is brought to you by Ledn. When life sends you a bill in dollars, you shouldn't have to hand over your bitcoin to pay it. Ledn lets you borrow dollars against your stack instead of selling, so you keep every sat. With Ledn, your collateral stays custodied and never gets loaned out. And the rates are posted up front with no surprises. Ledn has over $10 billion in loans across eight years, with zero customer bitcoin lost. So, to learn more and check out your rate, visit learn.ledn.io/simply.