Bitcoin, Gold and Silver Are ALL Crashing — Here's Why I'm Not Selling! | Truth Block

**Hurley** (0:00)
Inflation is rising again, hitting the hottest number in three years, as gold and silver have joined Bitcoin in a hard money bear market. The Fed's next move? A projected interest rate hike. And the president loves inflation. I love the inflation. So with no money printer in sight, is the debasement trade officially dead? And if that's true, how long will this bear market last? Could we end up chopping sideways under 100K for the rest of the decade? And inside Bitcoin, it's getting real spicy, as a civil war is bubbling up over whether the biggest holder on earth is saving this thing or strangling it. We've got maximum noise in the upside down world, so today we slow it all down and ask the only question that survives a week like this. Why are you really here? And how much does Bitcoin success actually matter? Not for your portfolio, but for humanity. This is Truth Block, I'm Hurley, let's mine truth.
Quick favor before we get started. Most of you watching right now aren't subscribed. So if the show gives you signal, please subscribe to Simply Bitcoin. It costs you nothing, and it really helps us more than you know. Okay, let's get into it. It's been a wild week in markets as usual, as May CPI came in at 4.2%.
The highest level since April 2023 That makes a whopping 63 straight months above the Fed's 2% inflation target. Prices are up 24% in just the last five years. The 2% target is officially a myth. And CPI is a lie, and anyone carrying a grocery bill already knew it. Now here's where it gets uncomfortable. The market is pricing nearly a coin flip that the Fed's next move is actually an interest rate hike. The European Central Bank already moved with the first hike in almost three years. And some analysts are laying this chart over the 1970s, where the first inflation wave was just the warmup act. So what does that do to the one trade every one of us has been counting on? The debasement trade is simple. The deficits are too big, the debt is too heavy, so eventually they print, and hard assets win. But if the Fed hikes into rising inflation, the big print gets shoved over the horizon, and the market is violently repricing everything that was waiting for it. Gold has been getting crushed and is now down more than 20% from its January high. The ancient shiny rock is now officially in a bear market as it moves below its 200-day moving average for the first time this entire cycle. Silver is down 47%.
Almost $13 trillion was wiped out of the metals in the last four months. Meanwhile, the dollar is sitting on a 15-year trend line and refusing to die on schedule. And Bitcoin, as we all know, is down over 50% and tracking right between the old bear market paths. In every cycle in history, Bitcoin has never bottomed more than about 70% below its realized price, which is the average cost basis of every holder. Run that math today and you get the mid 40s. Now that's not my prediction, it's just what some data is saying. We haven't spent a single day below realized price this cycle. So far. And I know what this fear actually is, because I feel it too. It's not about a chart, it's how you plan for your life, your family, what you're stewarding and who you're providing for. Two Bitcoin cycles in a row drastically underwhelmed and disappointed.
And now the market is telegraphing that the printer is broken.
But is it? The interest on the federal debt just crossed 1.3 trillion dollars a year. That's more than the defense budget and it's about to pass social security as the single biggest line item that the government pays. A hike makes that number bigger. A recession makes the deficit wider. Holding does both. Just slower. Every single door ends at the printer. The only thing the Fed gets to decide is the date.
So no, the hike scare doesn't kill the debasement trade. It delays it.
But sitting in the delay is miserable. And the longer it runs, the more it exposes what your conviction was actually made of.
Hold that thought for a second because we'll come back to it.
First, the most interesting 30 seconds on CNBC This Week came from Fong Li, CEO of Strategy. They asked him about the AI mania and listened to where he says the hot money goes next.

**Fong Li** (3:56)
I think if there's $500 billion of money that is going into SpaceX and Google and Anthropic, people look at crypto in 2021 like they look at AI this year.