Bitcoin Crash Explained: Here's What's Really Happening and What Comes Next! | Simply SatoSHE

**Sophie** (0:00)
Is Bitcoin dead?

**SPEAKER_2** (0:02)
We're losing him! We're losing him! He's dying!

**Sophie** (0:04)
Because if you've been on the internet this week, that is the question. Jim Cramer said it on CNBC. The fiat press is running the obituaries. No coiners are gloating, and your group chat is probably on fire right now. But before you panic or before you start celebrating, if you're on the wrong side of this, I found three signals that you need to see, because they tell a very different story than the headlines. And I also found one macroanalyst who sold most of his Bitcoin near the top, and he just laid out exactly why this is happening and what comes next. And it's not what you think. I'm Sophie, this is Simply Bitcoin's Satoshi, let's get into it.
Okay, here's where we are. Bitcoin has been bleeding. We got a bleeder! The fiat press is having the time of its life. And Safedin Amos summed up the vibe on X perfectly this week. No coiners are gloating, shit coiners in shambles, fiat press churning out the stupid think pieces on why this is really the end of Bitcoin. And he's right! We have seen this movie before, every single cycle. But here's the thing, this time, there's actually a real reason that Bitcoin is under pressure. And it's not what the doom crowd thinks it is, so let me show you what's actually going on. I want to start with the macro picture, because if you don't understand why Bitcoin is lagging right now, the three signals I'm about to show you won't make sense. Luke Groman, one of the sharpest macro minds in the space, sat down with Natalie Brunel this week. He sold most of his Bitcoin near the top, and he explained exactly what he thinks is driving this.

**SPEAKER_2** (1:45)
Can you break down why you think this is happening when we're seeing such momentum in stocks? We keep seeing the all-time highs. This is almost reminding me on the stock side of 2021, right? Every other day, all-time high, all-time high, but Bitcoin was doing so well back then. We were in a bull run. So what's the disconnect here?

**Luke Groman** (2:02)
I don't know for sure. My working hypothesis is if you look at sort of the underpinnings of this market run, they're not really healthy, actually. The headline indices, yes, all-time high, all-time high, all-time high, and it's like seven stocks. Just saw a chart yesterday that X things related to AI, the S&P 500 is flat to down slightly from the day before the Iran War started. I saw another chart that showed if you look at, if you take US, MSCI US and then MSCI emerging market, and you take TSMC, Samsung, and another big AI slash memory related name, I can't think of it, out of the US or the MSCI EM. It looks on the surface like EM is crushing the US.
But if you take those three or four AI related names out, EM is actually getting crushed. So there's these, we've seen the stuff about breadth. And I think that's, breadth of the market is very, very poor for where we are in terms of the headline indices. And I think what's ultimately happening is, AI is sucking all the oxygen out of the room, all the liquidity out of the room, and it's all in one area. And I think that's happening to Bitcoin as well. I think it's a victim of that as well. And as we've talked about many times, Bitcoin is one of, if not the last functioning smoke alarm of liquidity, and it's telling us not good things.

**Sophie** (3:28)
So it's not that Bitcoin is broken. It's that capital is rotating out of Bitcoin and into the SpaceX IPO, into AI, into whatever suddenly everyone has to own. Fidelity just dropped the minimum to get into SpaceX IPO from $500,000 down to $200,000. Retail is being let in, and that money has to be coming from somewhere. Pierre Richard said it cleanly, buy low Bitcoin, buy high SpaceX. Let's see which outperforms the other over 10 years. I'm betting on Bitcoin.
Ray Dalio posted something this week that I think is being completely slept on. He wrote an entire piece on why he recommends being a global macro long short investor. And his core argument is this, if you don't understand the big macro forces moving the world, you don't understand the risks and opportunities in front of you. And when you apply his framework to Bitcoin right now, the macro forces are all pointing in the same direction. Weakening dollar, reshoring, a US debt to GDP that has hit 130%. And Luke Roman noted that in 150 years of history, 58 out of 58 countries that hit that level have defaulted via inflation.