After Mild CPI, Investors Await PPI, Watch Yields

**Keith Lansford** (0:05)
Welcome to the Schwab Market Update Podcast, where we prepare you for each trading day with a recap of recent news and a look at what's ahead.
I'm Keith Lanceford, and here is Schwab's Early Look at the Markets for Thursday, August 13th. The next leg of this week's two-step inflation dance is the producer price index, or PPI, due at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time. Results could have implications for next month's Federal Reserve meeting, as the market still works and chances of a rate hike and treasury yields remain elevated. PPI plays a key role in determining results of the personal consumption expenditures, or PCE price index, the Fed's favorite inflation meter, due later this month. PPI measures wholesale prices and it rose steeply earlier this year. Consensus is for a 0.1% monthly rise in headline PPI at a 0.3% increase in core, excluding food and energy, according to briefing.com. The June numbers were negative 0.3% and positive 0.2% respectively, with total PPI up 5.5% year over year. Wednesday's headline July Consumer Price Index, or CPI, rose 0.1% monthly and core CPI climbed 0.2% in line with consensus. The report likely doesn't change the narrative for the Fed, said Cooper Howard, Director of Fixed Income Research and Strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research. We expect the Fed to remain on hold for the time being. They are closely focused on their inflation mandate and given this was as expected, gives them time before making the next move. Treasure yields and odds of a Fed rate hike in September both fell after CPI, but today's PPI represents another possible concern that might affect both. As of late Wednesday, chances of a September hike were 40 percent, down from 54 percent a week ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
A 10-year Treasury note auction brought solid results Wednesday, with a 30-year auction on tap today. Strong auction demand can moderate yields. Are higher yields a risk? Yes, bond yields are very important to stocks, risk premium and borrowing costs, of course. But it's not just about the trajectory of oil prices, it's also the influence from rising global bond yields, rising fiscal deficits and higher supply from hyperscalers and the like, said Nathan Peterson, Director of Derivatives Research and Strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research. PCE later this month and the August jobs report also loomed before the next rate decision, along with August CPI and PPI. In sum, the Fed has plenty of numbers ahead before a decision. CPI is a snapshot. It's one report and although it doesn't ring the alarm bells for inflation, it also doesn't suggest inflation moving lower toward the Fed's 2% target, Howard said. Annual CPI rose 3.4% in July, in line with expectations, and down from 3.5% in June and 4.2% in May. Core rose 2.5% year-over-year, matching consensus, and down from 2.6% in June. Along with PPI, the government will release weekly initial jobless claims data today and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment early tomorrow. Also, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time Friday come July retail sales. Consensus is for a 0.2% monthly rise.
On the earnings front, Cisco reported late Wednesday and slightly surpassed analysts' revenue and earnings-per-share growth estimates. Guidance for the current quarter topped expectations, too, and shares rose 2% in initial post-market action. Cisco's results followed solid outings from AI-related firms Supermicrocomputer and Coreweave that helped push the NASDAQ higher Wednesday. These fed into strength at NVIDIA, the largest AI company and a major factor on Wall Street due to its huge market capitalization. The next earnings report to watch is Applied Materials after today's close. Last time out, the company shared guidance that topped analyst estimates, powered by the AI boom that's helping equipment suppliers, Reuters reported at the time. On Wednesday, stocks started higher and maintained their gains throughout the session, but traded in a narrow range just below all-time highs posted last week. The S&P 500 index experienced an inside day on the charts, not breaking above Tuesday's high or below its low in light-volume trading. InfoTech led gains, though defensive sectors were close behind. Crude prices were flat Wednesday, trading in a narrow range and not having much impact on stocks after pressuring them Tuesday. Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic this week is 10% of normal, the Wall Street Journal reported. 8 of 11 S&P 500 sectors rose Wednesday, led by nearly 1% gains for InfoTech on earnings momentum. Consumer discretionary stocks had the worst day, falling more than 1.3%.
Earnings from many large retailers start next week. Stocks moving Wednesday included CoreWeave surging 19% after the cloud infrastructure firm reported strong quarterly revenue growth that topped Wall Street's forecasts and a narrower than expected loss. Guidance also topped expectations. Supermicrocomputer climbed 19% as earnings per share for the server maker topped estimates and the company gave guidance that topped the range seen by analysts spurred by rising AI demand and a long list of new customers. Dell, another server maker, rose 8%.