10AM Hour: Trump Says Hormuz Blockade is Back, Bank Earnings Preview, Comptroller of the Currency 7/13/26

**SPEAKER_1** (0:00)
The board recommends approving...

**Tom Michaud** (0:01)
Regarding that seat on the committee, we're promoting......to most quarterly earnings...

**SPEAKER_3** (0:04)
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**Sara Eisen** (1:08)
Good Monday morning, welcome to Squawk on the Street. I'm Sara Eisen with Carl Quintanilla and David Faber. We are live as always from Post 9 of the New York Stock Exchange. Oil prices are jumping this morning as tensions escalate yet again with Iran, and the fate of Hormuz remains uncertain, but gains have been relatively in check. We'll explain why. Plus, the US Comptroller of the Currency is with us. The largest bank regulator in the nation, actually bigger than the Fed, supervises more than 1,000 institutions as big bank earnings get underway this week. And Apple is suing OpenAI and a federal court in California, saying Sam Baldwin's company stole trade secrets. We'll talk about the potential fallout for the entire tech space. But guys, we've got a lot of events this week for Wall Street to look forward to and to trade on. And let's start with earnings because really earnings kick off into full gear, and that starts with the financials, the big banks. We always want to see what kind of tone they set, not just in numbers, but on the economy. It starts tomorrow with some of the biggies like Wells Fargo, Goldman City Bank of America, and JP Morgan gets into some of the airlines. Of course, after Delta gave a pretty strong read on demand, travel demand at the end of last week will get united on Wednesday. Netflix, I know you're going to be watching closely because there's been some drama around that stock. It's been under pressure and questions about engagement and what they might do on M&A. And then we'll start to get the regionals on Friday and then into the following week, the third truest US bank wars on Thursday. Economic data, key this week as well. So Biggie's going to be on Tuesday with the CPI, Consumer Price Index, and we are looking for a negative monthly headline number because oil prices have come down. I think the key will be watching the core, right? X food and energy and what actually inflation looks like, what services inflation looks like. Wednesday we'll get the first Fed Chairman, Kevin Warsh testimony, or actually starts on Tuesday and also goes to Wednesday. Tuesday's the House, Wednesday's the Senate.
We'll see if they can get anything out of him. I don't know. I tried a few weeks ago and it didn't.
He is very mum when it comes to any forward guidance, how he's thinking about the economy, how he's thinking about inflation, what he might do on rates, the reaction function. We'll see if he opens up a little bit more there for them. Then some key data like retail sales Thursday, and housing starts and sentiment on Friday. Look, big question for the Fed. Again, this might not be the biggest question for Wall Street, which is interesting and maybe the Fed wants to say I is so prevalent. But the biggest question for the Fed is, will they hike? Will they hike as soon as the July meeting? Because we don't have any hints or forward guidance from the Fed to know that, and we do know from the last minutes that some Fed members were in favor of that. Goldman Sachs put out a great chart that I just wanted to show you, which shows the S&P 500 at the beginning of a hiking cycle. If we even are on a hiking cycle, we don't even know if we're going to get hikes. We might get nothing this year. But if we do, just a chart to keep in mind, which is usually the market's weak when the Fed hikes. You can see that where the dotted line, it's a little thin there, but that's when the hiking cycle begins, and that dotted line and the market goes down, average return, median returns are low. But then actually after a starting struggle, you see the market recover nicely. According to Goldman, only a third probability, we're about 35 percent now in Fed Fund's futures of a hike at the meeting.