$5,000 Gold Next Or Collapse First? Coming Shock Revealed | Jeff Christian

**Jeff Christian** (0:00)
Jeff Christian, you have a weakening economy, you have persistent inflation. There's just so much bad stuff going on right now. To answer your question, do we think that this upward move in gold prices is going to end or not? The answer is...

**David Lin** (0:18)
I'm pleased to welcome back to the show, Jeff Christian, managing partner of the CPM Group. Jeff, welcome back. It's been a hectic summer for you, personally, I know.
And we're good to have you back. It's been a hectic summer for the markets. And this is the focus of our conversation today, whether or not this hectic rally that gold has experienced in the last couple of weeks is here to stay with us. Welcome back to the show. Good to see you.

**Jeff Christian** (0:42)
Thanks for having me back.

**David Lin** (0:45)
The central question, I'll just start with that.
Is this gold rally here to stay? We've talked offline about your gold forecast that you've made, that you and the CPM Group have made earlier this year, your gold yearbook that comes out annually. Remind us one more time, please. What is the average gold price that you're expecting for the end of the year? And basically, is this rally lining up or exceeding your initial forecast?

**Jeff Christian** (1:11)
Well, our average forecast for gold for this year has been about $4,450.
Our expectation was that the gold price would be in the $4,800 to $5,000 range by the end of this year. So our expectation has been that the gold price would be rising from the end of August into the end of 2026
We probably will be increasing that average price projection. I think that will probably hold where we think the price will be at the end of the year, to that $4,800 to $5,000 range. It could be a little higher, but we'll probably be increasing our annual average projection from $4,450 because the price is already higher than we thought it would be in August. And we're seeing upward pressure on the price. To answer your question, do we think that this upward move in gold prices is going to end or not? The answer is we think that there could be a pullback in early September. But our expectation, as I just said, is that the gold price is going to rise from now into the end of the year, if not into 2027 And that's based on our reading of the economic and financial and political world.

**David Lin** (2:51)
Several financial institutions, including the Bank of America, earlier this year, lowered their gold price forecast for the year after the Iran War began and interest rates started to rise. Recall that the long end of the Treasury yield curve has been rising for several months now. This all changed following a few events. July 31st was the first day that gold started rising from $4,000. That was when the Treasury intervened in the yen market, buying yen to prop up the Japanese yen. The theory is that if the yen carried traded wines, then there could be a sell-off from US. Treasuries pushing up yields. The second event was just last week on August 19th, when the Treasury announced that they would double their bond buyback program from $2 to $4 billion per operation. Just this week, as a reminder to the audience, the Treasury announced that they could use their Treasury general account. Scott Besson said on CNBC, they have up to $1 trillion at their disposal. Anyway, the point is, the gold markets and sentiment overall turned once the Treasury started intervening in the yields market. Do you believe that A, this intervention will work and that yields will eventually be brought down?
Or at least we're capping it at around this current level?
And B, if it does work, would you be raising your gold price forecast given that yields are no longer a concern for gold?

**Jeff Christian** (4:15)
Well, first off, the intervention for the yen, if that's what you're talking about, we don't think that that ultimately is a positive. And for the Japanese yen or the Japanese economy or the world economy, you know, those kinds of interventions don't work. And by, they were largely discredited by the early 1980s. And most central banks stopped trying to intervene to support their currencies by buying those currencies.
And you started to see, I mean, the general consensus learned in the 70s and early 80s was that central bank interventions can accelerate directions in currency markets, but they can't necessarily reverse the direction. So if you see the yen under pressure, the idea of buying yen to push the yen up probably is a bad idea because it probably won't work. So, you know, we think that on the first, there are about five reasons why we think the yen intervention is bad. One is it won't work. The second is it signals to the economy or into the financial markets that central banks are going back to previously discredited policies. You know, this is something that we learned 40 years ago, and yet the US Treasury and the Bank of Japan are doing it. You know, so that doesn't help create financial market confidence in monetary and financial and fiscal management.