You're About To Make The Worst Investment Decision Of Your Life

**Ran** (0:00)
Over the last few months, being a Crypto Investor has been really tough. It's not only because crypto prices are down, but it's also because at the same time that the prices are down, every other market around the world has been having a generational bull market. It started with gold, then it went to silver, then it became AI, and now it's pretty much every single index in the world. I don't know about you, but every single morning I wake up, and my timeline is full of those all-time high posts for every other market. And at the same time, crypto just isn't moving.
I can tell you, I've been here for 12 years, and I don't remember a time when the crypto market was so much out of favor. Even in the depths of the bull markets, it wasn't as bad as this.
And the big issue is that crypto was supposed to be the riskiest part of our portfolios, and that was the part that was supposed to give us the upsized returns, and it hasn't. Now, there can be many reasons why this is happening. I mean, it could be because of the big 10-10 liquidation and the after effects of that. It could also just be because of the four-year cycle. Maybe Bitcoin's four-year cycle is just repeating itself.
It could also be around the risk of quantum computing. Either way, it doesn't matter. Right now, Bitcoin is grossly underperforming the AI trade. And the problem is that the longer that Bitcoin underperforms the AI trade, the less attractive it becomes for the retail investor. And when that happens, that's when more investors actually dump Bitcoin to try and get into the AI trade. Now, this is where I think that investors may be making a mistake.
What I see is, I see investors leaving a non-performing trade to get into a trade that may be slightly overcrowded. Now, don't get me wrong, I'm very bullish about AI. I use AI every single day, and I actually think that we're not in a bubble, or at least not at this stage. I made a video recently, and in that video, I highlighted that the real AI correction, the dot-com correction of AI may actually only come in 2033 I'll leave a link below, and you can go and watch it in your own time.
I do, I ever think that despite the fact that the big correction will only come in 2033, I think that in the short term, the AI trade may be coming a little bit overextended. And that if that's the case, then I don't know if you want to be rushing into the overcrowded trade and that there may be other trades that maybe could get you a better return. Let me show you a few charts before we get into the main chart, the one that I actually want to show you, the one that my thesis is based on for the show.
Firstly, it's worth noting right now that over 40% of the market is concentrated in the top 10 stocks.
Next, you need to see that those stocks are actually AI driven stocks.
And the main thing about this is that every single time that this has happened in history, every single time that the concentration has crossed 40% and major market crash followed. In 1929, 10 stocks made up 44% of the market, and then we got the Great Depression. In 1965, that number hit 40%, and then we got the go-go bubble which burst.
In 2000, I was sitting in front of a trading screen, that concentration hit 41%, and then we got the.com crash. Then another good place to look is to look at the IGV chart. Now, the IGV chart is a software ETF, and if you look at it, what you can see is that the software stocks were hit very hard when AI came in. Everyone was scared that the AI trade would destroy the software companies. Everyone looked at things like OpenAI and like Claude and said, Well, why do you actually need software if the AI agent is basically going to be able to do everything for you without actually using that software? But at some point, that trade became overcrowded, and what you can see is that at that point, the chart actually turned. Now, another thing you'll notice is that when the chart turned, it actually turned pretty fast, right?
Maybe a better way to look at this is to look at the chart of the IGV divided by NVIDIA. And the reason why you do that is because you're then comparing the software market to the king of AI, which is NVIDIA. And what you can see is that even though AI is driving the market, the charts have started to turn and the turn is happening very fast. What the charts are showing us is that the markets are starting to move from the crowded trade back to the value trade. So they're moving out of the crowded AI trade back to the value software trade. You can see it in IGV, but if you look at the individual components or the individual software companies, you can see the same thing there as well, right? Look at Microsoft, look at Oracle, look at Adobe. They all show exactly the same pattern. They were on a downtrend when that market was out of favor, and now they're starting to turn. And the main thing is that when they turn, the turn is quite fast and aggressive. Oracle's up 70% in a month. Microsoft's up 30% in a month.