Will 2026 Be The Year Dangerously Overvalued Stocks Revert To The Mean? | Lance Roberts

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**Lance Roberts** (0:31)
When you look at returns over the last 15 years, we're running returns 50% above the average return of the market since 1900 So over 125 years in the last 15, we've run average returns 50% above norms. You can't sustain that forever, particularly when the economy is growing at 2%.
So that increases this risk of a potential downside, and reversions to the mean is the most powerful force in investing. Again, when you look at any asset class, stocks, bonds, crypto, precious metals, whatever, watch the mean, because that mean average is where price is going to revert to at some point. It's just a function of time. Something will cause it, and you're going to have this reversion to the mean. And when you're trading at two standard deviations or three or four from long term means, that reversion becomes much more probable.

**Adam Taggart** (1:29)
Welcome to Thoughtful Money. I'm Thoughtful Money Founder and your host, Adam Taggart, welcoming you here at the first day of 2026, which also happens to be our first weekly Market Recap of the year. I'm joined, as usual, by the portfolio manager with that new car smell. Lance Roberts, Lance, how are you doing?

**Lance Roberts** (1:48)
I'm doing really well. I think somebody left a fish in there, but other than that, yeah, it's all good.

**Adam Taggart** (1:54)
Well, new year, new car smell. I see you've got the fireworks behind you there. I hope you and your wife especially, but you and your family had a great time ringing in the New Year's last night.

**Lance Roberts** (2:04)
Well, actually, it was very low key last night. Just for everybody's awareness, we're actually recording this on Thursday, and so we'll have a full trading day on Friday in the market, so whatever we talk about today may change tomorrow, but tomorrow is my wife's last chemo, so everybody's getting prepared for that tomorrow and then we'll be done.

**Adam Taggart** (2:27)
Great, and hey, very appropriate. You've got the fireworks there. That is a phenomenal milestone to celebrate. Last time you gave us an update, you said that things were going about as well as one could hope. Is that hopefully still the case?

**Lance Roberts** (2:39)
Oh, yeah, absolutely. It's better than we could have hoped for.
We talked about last week, we ran this blood test that basically looks for evidence of disease in our system, and there was none. So she's termed what's NED, no evidence of disease. So it doesn't mean she doesn't have cancer. It doesn't mean she's cured by any stretch of imagination, but it is a very positive outcome for the test. So we get through this last chemo, and then for the next five years, we'll be on three-month visits, blood tests, checkups, those type of things. Then in five years, if she has no return of cancer, then she'll be considered to be in remission.

**Adam Taggart** (3:22)
All right. Well, look, everyone watching has got their fingers crossed. They're continuing the prayers to come along. Hopefully, those five years go by swiftly and cancer-free, and we all get to celebrate in five years, when you and I are probably still doing this.

**Lance Roberts** (3:39)
I was going to say, let's not do the swiftly part, because that'll put me at 65, but let's just get through the next five years.

**Adam Taggart** (3:47)
All right, and I just hope, I know the chemo, you don't feel great after it, but hopefully after that, that's behind her and she just starts feeling better and better and better.

**Lance Roberts** (3:59)
Absolutely. Real quick, before we get started in the show today, I just wanted to remind everybody to make sure, and if you haven't got your tickets yet for our 2026 Economic Summit, that's coming up just in about two and a half weeks. It's on January the 17th. So again, Adam is going to be there the night before. We actually have a mixer where you can hang out with us and visit and talk. And we've got a really good line up of speakers covering everything from cryptocurrency and stable coins to artificial intelligence. We've got a guy from BlackRock coming in to talk about that. Myself and Mike will be covering that, look for stocks and for bonds for next year. And then also Ed Slott, who is America's financial planner, will be there talking about financial planning for 2026 So if you're nearing retirement, thinking about retiring, this is really the guy you want to hear to talk about what kind of steps you take for next year, particularly because of the enactment of the one big beautiful bill. So go to our website, realinvestmentadvice.com, and there's a link right at the top of the page for the Economic Summit. You can register, it has all the details for you. But I would get your tickets. If you're going to come, we'd love to have you, and we also have a blocker room set aside at the hotel at a discounted rate.