Why Did the Iran War Restart? | Macro Mondays, July 14, 2026

**SPEAKER_1** (0:00)
Sometimes it may be good, sometimes it may be shit.

**Mikkel Rosenvold** (0:22)
Hello out there, welcome to Real Vision, welcome to Macro Mondays. My name is Mikkel Rosenvold, your usual host, and as usual, I'm joined by Andreas Steno. And while I'm sending to you from rainy Copenhagen, Andreas, you're live with us from the warmth of Corsica. Andreas, before I get to ask you about the elephant in the room behind you, let's start with the other elephant.
Do we need to worry about oil again? I thought the war was over.

**Andreas Steno** (0:48)
Well, I don't think you should ask me that question whether the war is over. I think I've called it over like three or four times. But I actually don't think the oil math looks that bad compared to, say, March or April. So I'm not worried as we speak. But of course, we cannot live with the close trade for the rest of the year. So it depends on your time horizon, Mikkel.
That's the long answer to the short question.

**Mikkel Rosenvold** (1:13)
And what's the big trade you're looking at right now, Andreas?

**Andreas Steno** (1:17)
I think the big trade that everybody's looking at is the memory stocks. You know, we've had bizarre volatility on Friday and on Monday here again, in some of the names that everybody's involved in. So, you know, I think we're approaching a point where it looks incredibly tempting to buy that appear in memory.

**Mikkel Rosenvold** (1:37)
Absolutely. We'll dive much more into this, including a look ahead at the prints this week and all the news that we're going to be getting on the inflation picture. They're obviously heavily influenced by oil. Remember, this is our free show on Real Vision that is published across platforms. We publish a number of articles and exclusive shows on Real Vision as well. So do check out your options on realvision.com for even more content, including, Andreas, your oil flash update. We will be digging a little bit into it. But if you want the full picture, the full analysis and all, you need to sign up for Real Vision's approach here for that. Andreas, let's dive straight into it.
We had this message from Donald Trump just an hour and a half ago, I think, that Donald Trump wants the US to run Hormuz.
And we're essentially in a position, Andreas, where for the past week or so, we've had increasing attacks from both sides, leading up to the point where Donald Trump, first of all, declared the ceasefire for over, initiated heavy attacks on the IRGC over the weekend. We didn't really get any hope, Andreas. We didn't really get any talk about returning to the negotiation table. And now there's news that the US wants to run the straight of Hormuz. Now, let's start with geopolitics here, Andreas. I wrote a piece last week, and you can check it out on Real Vision on why we got to this point, why the US miscalculated in the memorandum of understanding. It's actually... There are some logic steps you can follow, game theory-wise, as to why the Iranian Republican Guard ended up essentially disrupting the memorandum and the peace process. But now we're at this point, Andreas, the US wants to run the straight of Hormuz.
I don't know what that means. How do you run a block of water? Do you run the coastlines on each side? Possibly. Do you take some of the islands within? Do you blockade it natively? We don't know. In any case, this speaks to further disturbances to the flow of oil. How do you gauge the market reaction to all this, Andreas? And have we seen the worst yet?

**Andreas Steno** (3:53)
Yeah, I mean, if we look at the oil price live, we're not even above Thursday's peak. So, I mean, it's not that bad. And speaking of the flow, I mean, we're not talking about a closed straight, at least. I borrowed a chart from a good friend, Rory Johnston. So a big shout out to him. He's really, really good follow when, when it comes to the flows in and out of the Strait of Hormuz. And it's been clear to me for a while that the flow was better than reported everywhere basically. So if you look at the left-hand side here, we have the West to East flow out of the Strait of Hormuz of tanker ships, right? And we had a lot of unaccounted dark transits basically through June, most of July. We still have those, still waiting for the, for the point where Donald Trump admits to Abu Dhabi being behind these dark transits, right?
And I still think that it remains the case that the flow is actually okay-ish. I mean, there is at least a flow.