What Is Iran’s Endgame?

**Ali Vaez** (0:00)
Class dismissed. This class again?

**SPEAKER_2** (0:04)
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**Ravi Agrawal** (0:45)
Hi, I'm Ravi Agrawal, Foreign Policy's Editor-in-Chief. This is FP Live.
The war in Iran has now entered its second month. It's worth remembering that some of Iran's senior most leaders, including its supreme leader, were killed on day one. Yet the war continues. How long can Iran's current leadership keep this up? And how might they be thinking of an end game? I have a terrific guest with extensive contacts among Iranian lawmakers and real insight into the regime's thinking. That's in a minute. First, my read on things based on a piece I just published in FP. One month in, I wanted to look at how each side defines success. That's the US, Iran and Israel. A definition of success is important because meeting some version of that, or at least being able to spin some version of it, makes it more likely that a side will be open to ending the war. And the more I've been thinking about this, the more I've begun to feel that by most metrics, the United States and Israel are winning key battles. As I said, they've killed top Iranian leaders, they've destroyed Iran's Air Force and Navy, they've degraded Iran's ability to launch missiles. They've won so many of these key sites of battle, and yet it feels like they're losing the war. And by they, I mean specifically the United States and the Trump administration. As I lay out in my essay, the White House hasn't actually met its key objectives. Despite what it says, the regime clearly survives, it's still launching missiles, it's shutting down the Strait of Hormuz. It is so stubborn and so careless of how much its own people lose, that it will keep going, just to impose costs on the world and to survive. And if this regime survives, it will rebuild. And then, aren't we back to square one? Do we keep going to war with Iran? This might be a strategy for Israel, but it is hardly a strategy for the United States, especially under a president who has made clear he wants out of forever wars. Second, the costs are mounting, hard economic costs, but also soft costs in terms of reputation. The price of oil is up more than 75% this year. Jet fuel has more than doubled. This is having huge ripple effects on the global economy. Helium supplies have been hit, which hurts semiconductor manufacturing. Fertilizer can't get through the Strait of Hormuz, which could lead to a food crisis. As usual, poorer countries are suffering the most. One survey by Geopol conducted in Egypt, Kenya, Pakistan, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, and South Africa found that only 18% of people blame Iran for this conflict. 29% blame the United States, and 38% blame Israel. I think at least in part, this comes from a perception that war wasn't necessary. Diplomacy still had a chance. Meanwhile, in a bid to keep oil prices low, the White House has rescinded oil sanctions on Iran and Russia, and both are raking in way more oil revenue than they have in years. That's money that will almost certainly go towards rebuilding their respective war machines. Whatever is left of Iran's leadership will return more vengeful, more radical, and more hardline. So, it begs the question. If we're going to go back to square one, or even a worse situation than before, what was the point? Was it worth it? Ultimately, this is the question the Trump administration will need to answer to lawmakers, to the American public, and indeed to the world. Okay, time now for this week's interview. As I said, little is known about just who is leading Iran right now, how command and control is functioning, and how the regime might conceive of an end to the war. My guest this week has for years been involved in track two dialogues with the Iranians and remains in touch with many lawmakers there. Ali Vaez is the Director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group. He teaches at Georgetown University, and he's co-author of How Sanctions Work, Iran and the Impact of Economic Warfare. Let's dive in.