Watchlist PDD. Is Colin Huang spending correctly? artwork

Watchlist PDD. Is Colin Huang spending correctly?

Faceless Trader

October 21, 2019

July 22,2019
Speakers: Facelesstrader
**Facelesstrader** (0:05)
This podcast informs listeners that the views, thoughts, and opinions expressed solely belong to the host and not necessarily to their employer or any other group of individuals. It is not a research report, it is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. This is for informational purposes only and should not be construed otherwise.
Should you invest in Chinese e-commerce?
Yes.
And a lot of you probably have known about Alibaba JD. Not sure if you know that there is a third player. The name is Pintuo Tuo.
Pintuo Tuo, PDD, is a startup. Four years old, and I shared the letter of the CEO, Mr. Colin Huang.
I'll read it for you on the most important things about his shareholders' letter, which he published April 21, 2019
He says that Pintuo Tuo is still a young startup. Even at its scale and pace of growth, Pintuo Tuo is still only four years old. It's like when Yao Ming just started in elementary school. He might have been quite tall, but he was nevertheless only an elementary school student. At that stage, what he needed the most were adequate nutrition, appropriate training, and life experiences. Occasionally, he got pushed onto the court to compete head-to-head with adult players. It was during those times that the referees and coaches should have watched closely to decide whether the competition was fair. Would this little grown-up become a stronger player through cuts and bruises from the game, or would he suffer injuries that would be career-threatening? We believe that everyone would prefer to see more talented players emerging and contributing to exciting games rather than brawls on the court. As his guardian, if you wanted to nurture him into a kind and independent individual, having in him involved in community service or encouraging him to earn some pocket money on weekends might not be a bad idea, but it might not be a good idea if you ask him to count his pocket money in the piggy bank every now and then and to solely keep it there. Investing in something that should benefit him in the future, such as a new pair of basketball shoes, might deliver basketball better returns. This is because this little grown-up, having been pushed onto the court, had already proven his capability and potential to generate revenue and make real money at any time. Similarly, at this current stage, Pintuoto has the ability to generate revenue, but it is weakly correlated with the large amount of spending we choose to incur. These short-term expenses are highly discretionary. In fact, we view a significant portion as long-term investments, where we foresee meaningful, continuous returns. It is probably not a good idea to put our money in the piggy bank into a fixed deposit at this stage. Hence, we will not change our business strategy for a considerable period of time. We will continue to focus on building our intrinsic value and proactively seek investment opportunities that can drive the long-term value for our company, even if these investments are recognized as expenses under the accounting standards. I have two companies that are actually cash-burning. Pintuoto is one of them. The other one is actually Beyond Meat is also a cash-burn. Netflix is also a cash-burn. I haven't bought Netflix yet. I'm waiting for it to go down $250 thereabouts, if I could.
But generally speaking, the reason why I would buy these companies even if they are losing money is because number one, I can see that on a free cash-flow basis, they aren't really losing money. They just chose to spend. It is true. Pintuotuo just chose to spend more. They spend more than Alibaba or JD. This is... I understand why Colin Huang is saying that they're just a little yaoming. They're just an elementary school student. They have proven that they can do revenues, and they have. I mean, they've been...
They've been hitting $486 million. Is that easy? Do you think that's easy?
But a lot of people don't see that they are able to earn money because they're just basically afraid of a cash burn, that within ramp up time, they won't be able to fight against Alibaba or JD. But I think that... Okay, who backed it up? Do you know who backed up Pintuotu? It's Tencent. Tencent will essentially allow JD... I mean, allow Pintuotu to lose that money in order to gain the market share, which they have been doing. The largest risk I see only in Pintuotu is that...
How long will it take for them to actually earn? Whereas in JD, which we also have a buy, we already know that it's earning money. It's gonna increase their expand... And expand their margin. So between the two, yes, I know, JD is more blue-chip. Of course, Alibaba is super blue-chip. We have buy ratings on all of them. But I put PDD on watchlist because these are the companies that could grow up to become the new...

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