Wall Of Worry Puts Stocks At Risk Of Screaming Higher On Any Good News | Lance Roberts

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**Lance Roberts** (0:43)
The important thing, though, is that as soon as you get some type of resolution in this market, this market is going to scream. I mean, you're going to see this market up 10, 15 percent.

**Adam Taggart** (0:57)
Welcome to Thoughtful Money, I'm Thoughtful Money Founder and your host, Adam Taggart. Welcome you here at the end of the week for another weekly market recap featuring my good friend, the Heisenbergian analyst and portfolio manager, Lance Roberts.

**Lance Roberts** (1:11)
Hi, how are you today? Fine, my Heisenberg, what am I, Heisenbergian?

**Adam Taggart** (1:15)
Heisenbergian. Heisenbergian, yes. Yeah, you know, the uncertainty principle. I pulled it just because so much of the action now is being driven by the war in Iraq. And if you try to follow the developments there, your head spins because you're told one thing one minute, and then the next thing the next minute, right? Oh, we're having great productive talks. No, nobody's talking. Oh, we're giving them an extension. Oh, we're going to bomb them to hell tomorrow. It's a crazy time, crazy making time. And it's all relevant, Lance, at the end of the day, because it comes down to the thing that you said, you always say matters most, which is expectation of future earnings. And I think right now, we have a market that is still generally pricing in this conflict, as if it's going to be relatively short lived, but I think is getting more and more nervous on a day by day basis as to the impact of high oil prices, the uncertainty with how long they might last, the potential additional damage to energy infrastructure there in the Gulf that could then make oil prices a lot higher for a lot longer. That uncertainty is, I think, playing a larger and larger role in investors' minds at this point in time. So I want to talk to you about all that. We'll talk about oil prices. We'll talk about future earnings. We'll talk about credit spreads. We'll talk about what's happening with bond yields. Real quick before we do, I just want to note that the Thoughtful Money Spring Online Conference was this past weekend. It was fantastic, Lance, and maybe we'll talk about some of the key things that were mentioned there. I just want to note real quick for folks two things. One, if you attended, this happens every year.
We really pride ourselves on getting you the replay videos of the event out in just a couple hours after the event ends. It's 11 hours of material, and we're able to get you those replay videos, literally, I think, within three or four hours of the event's conclusion, which we did this past Saturday. And we send them out by several different email services, but invariably, there are a few people who don't get it, for whatever reason, it goes into their spam. Maybe they signed up using a different email that they forgot about. So I've been getting a small trickle of folks saying, hey, where are the replay videos? We've sent them out to you. So if you're not finding it in your spam folder or whatnot, just email support at thoughtfulmoney.com, and I'll email you the replays directly. I want to make sure everybody who paid for the conference gets their videos, obviously. And if you didn't attend the conference but are wishing you had, don't worry. You can still purchase the replay of the entire event, all the presentations, all the live Q&As, by simply going to thoughtfullmoney.com/conference, and you can buy it there. All right, Lance, with that said, let's talk about your latest analysis, not of the war itself, but of the weight it's having on markets.

**Lance Roberts** (4:13)
So where do you want to kind of start that from?

**Adam Taggart** (4:16)
Well, I mean, so market volatilities continued, right? Markets haven't puked yet. Last time we were talking, I think the market had dropped below the 200-day moving average. I think, I could be wrong, but I think it's above that now, and I know it popped back above, and I remember you said last week, if it does, we're going to start selling into that strength. So curious if you've been doing that, and very curious to hear your thoughts right now as to whether the market is approaching some sort of panic level here with the concerns about the war, and then the private credit drumbeats been continuing. So what's your general overview of Tenor?