VSiN PrimeTime | July 29, 2026 | Hour 2

**SPEAKER_1** (0:00)
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**SPEAKER_2** (0:21)
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**SPEAKER_1** (0:39)
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**SPEAKER_2** (0:49)
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**SPEAKER_3** (1:01)
This is VSiN PrimeTime. Live from the Circus Sportsbook in downtown Las Vegas on VSiN, the sports betting network.

**Femi Abebefe** (1:13)
Welcome back. It is hour number two of VSiN PrimeTime here on VSiN, the sports betting network, Femi Abebefe, Doug Kezirian. Hanging with you guys here on this Wednesday night. As always, if you want to watch us, vsin.com/watch the VSiN Watch app, and you can listen live on SiriusXM Channel 158 as we are taking in all sorts of major league baseball. Yankees have a four nothing lead on the White Sox, Razor up three nothing on the Texas Rangers, but we'll put the baseball off to the side for now because we've got to turn our attention to the National Football League. And to help us do that, we're bringing in betting and fantasy analysts for 4 for 4 football. Does great work for our friends over at BetSperts. It's our good buddy, Connor Allen, who joins us here via the Progressive Guest Line, and he's on Twitter at Connor Allen, NFL. Connor, it's been a while. Hope you are doing well. Man, the timeline, I was telling Doug in the last hour, the timeline is full of training camp videos and quotes. We are officially back, my friend. And I gotta ask you, because you're so sharp when it comes to the season long props, what goes into your process when you're handicapping this stuff, looking at guys from a season long standpoint?

**Connor Allen** (2:19)
Yeah, Femi, Doug, appreciate you having me on here. Always awesome to chop it up. But the season long props are really interesting. So a couple of years ago, I started noticing that they were setting the lines a little bit too high. So if the last five years I've tracked all the different season long props across different categories, passing yards, rushing yards, receiving yards, we're talking about Patrick Mahomes over under, you know, 4,000 yards, say something like that. I've tracked all of them and over the last five years, every single season, if you blind bet every single under, it would be profitable to bet. And now it's crazy because we're talking about over 60% against the line there, which is a wild number. And now I'm not vouching for blindly betting anything. You know, I think you can pick and choose and frankly do even better. So really with minus 110 lines, I like to lean under on virtually every passing or every category for the season long props. And then if I'm going to bet an over, I really like taking the alt overs because when overs hit, they go over by an average of 30% and then a median of over 21%.
So love that strategy.

**Doug Kezirian** (3:21)
You know, and you touched on it there at minus 110 Obviously, if 60%, you may not make money if all the heavy juice is on the under, right? That juice, especially for numbers like hockey and soccer, where there's big juice on half, half really matters as opposed to like passing yards, right? Like the half doesn't really matter.
Okay. So, you know, anytime you're immersed in something like yourself with the NFL, there's not a lot of surprises. Like, yes, you're going to put in your work in the off season and go through each team and everything, but you kind of already know the gist of where your numbers might lie. Is there anything that surprised you? Good surprise, bad surprise on a particular player prop that once you dug deep and were like, oh my God, I thought for sure I'd be on the over and it's the under. Anything like that, that really caught you off guard given that you are day to day already immersed in things?